Not exactly polar conditions, but a mere 38 degrees a little after 11 a.m. at the New Orleans Lakefront Airport with a 14 mile-per-hour wind whipping from the north. Not exactly ideal conditions. The cold front came in late Thursday night and apparently kept the turf course from adequately drying so races 1,2, and 4 all are off turf, while the two turf stakes, the Krantz Memorial and the Bradley, will be run over soft ground. The rail for some reason is at 12 feet rather than down entirely. The main track is fast.

The only two scratches from the day's main event, race 9, the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes, were already known: Wonder Gadot (3) is out of this race and in the Silverbulletday, and Ciaran (11) has been scratched. Trigger Warning (14), who shipped from Turf Paradise to start as a 30/1 shot (I just talked him into winning) draws in from the AE list.

The Lecomte is a proving ground for the locally based Principe Guilherme (12), who does move into post 10 with the two scratches. The Steve Asmussen-trained colt by Tapit out of Grade 1-winner Aubby K (whose ideal trip was 7f) has crushed Churchill maidens at seven furlongs and Fair Grounds allowance horses at one mile 70 yards, and he was less green second out while relaxing very nicely on the front end. That said. Principe Guilherme has gotten very favorable setups in his wins, and while he might well adapt to more demanding circumstances, he is nearly certain to find those today. It's not difficult to see Principe Guilherme really coming forward as a serious 3-year-old this afternoon, but he is the 5/2 morning-line favorite and won't go off at a price any higher than that, and as a value proposition, I'm taking a stand against him today while also eager to see what he can do.

The Lecomte horse that, to me, seems certain to be considerably lower than his 4/1 morning line is Instilled Regard (10). He has run against most of the best Southern California horses of his generation (not Bolt d'Oro) and showed that he belongs with that group, and his close third last out in the G1 Los Al Futurity surely gets higher marks than anything Principe Guilherme has yet accomplished, doesn't it? Moreover, Instilled Regard changed running styles, coming from off the pace last time, and similar tactics could prove very useful today.

For me, Lone Sailor (1), Zing Zang (8), and, to a lesser extent, Prince Lucky (13), are the chances to get a price into the exotics, and I will be using them accordingly.

The Silverbulletday, the Lecomte's 3-year-old filly counterpart, is down to eight runners after four scratches. The defection of Noblame (11), removes a major pace player. This probably comes down to the two Mark Casse-trained fillies, and I prefer Wonder Gadot (2) over Heavenly Love (7), but would not try to convince anyone who felt they belonged in reverse order.

Liked Special Ops (9) quite a bit in the Coloney Bradley, race 8, but on a soft oourse I couldn't get too deeply invested.

Dazzling Gem (10) ran at Oaklawn yesterday and is out of the Louisiana Stakes, race 10, as is his stable-mate Leofric (3) as well as Rated R Superstar (2). I'll be backing Cedartown (4) here provided the price is fair (somethiong over, say, 7/2?), which it might not be.