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Thumb_aragona__dave_twitter David Aragona , Aqueduct , 01/14/2018 , Race 6 - DRF Live Posted : Jan 14, 2018, 2:01 PM

Betting Sunday's Late Pick-4 at Aqueduct

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Race 6: Both Jason Servis runners figure to take money here, and I’m somewhat against them. Favored Driven West (5) has been steadily dropping in class after a series of layoffs, and Mr. Euro (2) is unproven at this distance. I’m trying to beat them with Noble and True (1), who is finally stretching out to a more appropriate distance after two consecutive six-furlong races. Over the past five years, David Jacobson has fantastic numbers with these cheaper claimers stretching out on dirt.

Race 7: Favored J J’s Dreaming (11) has to be included, but I think he’s probably going to be an underlay. My top selection is Quai Voltaire (4). Givetheman A Cigar, who he defeated in that Nov. 22 race, is the same horse that J J’s Dreaming beat last time by a similar margin. His two races going a mile have been some of the best of his career. On backup tickets, I also want to throw in Prophet’s Cat (8). The main knock against him is that he so rarely wins. However, he’s run speed figures that make him competitive here, and his last effort against a much tougher group suggests that he’s in decent form.

Race 8: I think the strategy to successfully betting this race is to try to beat English Soul (1). She’s primarily a turf horse who has taken advantage of sloppy, sealed racetracks in off-the-turf events. With a much drier main track to race over, I believe she’ll be vulnerable. Midnight Disguise (8) is unlikely to offer much value, but she just seems like the kind of filly that should appreciate stretching back out to a mile as an imposing daughter of Midnight Lute. Impressive maiden winner Cryinthemoonlight (2) is the other runner that I would lean on.

Race 9: I’ll close out this sequence by primarily using the two favorites, Orchid Party (1) and Cathy Naz (10). The others would need to improve significantly to have a say in the outcome.

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