Race 2: R Lucky Charm (3) is the horse to beat in what is one of the most interesting races on today’s card. However, the drop in class and layoff have me concerned about her current form. I’m trying to beat her with Luna Rising (2) off the trainer switch to Michelle Nevin. Nevin has great numbers with this move and Luna Rising had actually run competitive speed figures as a younger horse. Rudy Rodriguez’s pair, Town Tart (4) and Spinyatta (5) also are dangerous.

Race 3: I’m betting this as if it’s a two-horse race between Control Group (5) and Can You Diggit (2). Control Group is the more likely winner, but he’s going to be a very short price and I think Can You Diggit has a reasonable chance to beat him. Control Group is supposed to get early pressure from Wake Up in Malibu, which could soften him up. If Can You Diggit can run back to his effort in the Empire Classic from last fall, I think he can pull off the upset.

Race 4: The two main players are Overtime Olivia (2), who ran surprisingly well in her career debut last month, setting a fast pace before just getting caught late, and My Girl Annie (6), who faced better horses in her prior dirt sprint efforts but must deal with an extended layoff. The well-bred Pink Twist (5) is the other runner to include, but Todd Pletcher’s numbers with debuting New York-breds at Aqueduct are merely mediocre.

Race 5: There aren’t many attractive options in this race, which leads me to believe that Blue Watch (7) is the horse to beat. Her pedigree is geared towards turf, but I’m going to take it as a positive sign that she’s running in this dirt sprint, as she has likely trained well over this surface. Total Control (2) appears most likely of those with dirt experience, and Summer Punch (3) is an interesting wild card that might be worth throwing in on the surface switch given her dirt-oriented pedigree.