Race 5: I think that Fielding Gold (5) is the horse to beat, and I prefer him to Archie (2), who also figures to take money. Fielding Gold was off about 2 lengths slowly last time and ran quite well to be second, all things considered. I’m definitely using him, but I think Thirsty Donnerstag (6) is a viable longshot in this spot, and he’s my top pick. He has improved since getting switched back to dirt this winter, and ran well closing outside last time in a race that was dominated by horses that rode the rail.
Race 6: Incubator (5) is likely to go off as a heavy favorite as he drops in for a tag for the first time. If he runs back to either of his two prior effort at this one-mile distance, he is going to be tough to beat. However, I nevertheless want to also use My Pirate (7) as an additional ‘A’ here. This horse is getting a significant trainer upgrade for this race and is bred to stretch out in distance.
Race 7: I want to lean on Cairenn (1), who ships up from Maryland off an impressive maiden score last month. The speed figures that she earned for that performance (both Beyer and TimemformUS) are the highest in the field, and horses have run back out of each of her last two races to validate the numbers she was assigned. She figures to sit a great stalking trip in behind the speeds. Pray for Bourbon (2) and Sand City (6) are the only two backups I want to include.
Race 8: The finale is perhaps the most wide-open race in this sequence. I picked Incorporate (5) on top, but I also want to use logical runners like Mineralogy (8) and Gehrig (9). The Caretaker (4) is an enigma, as he ran well early in his career, but his recent form is not inspiring.
The Pick-4 Play, all for 50 cents, starting in Race 5:
{All A's}
{3 A's with 1 B}
{3 A's with 1 C}
{2 A's with 2 B's}