There are really wonderful horses in the Pegasus World Cup, for which the horses are saddled and walking in the paddock right now at Gulfstream Park, and the presence of Gun Runner (10), who is trying to win his career finale after a brilliant Horse of the Year season in 2017, is compelling in its own right.

It's also an interesting to imagine how this race will unfold. I think the leading theory regarding the pace is that it will be fast and contested, and that's probably right. There's little doubt that Sharp Azteca (4), a fast miler, is going forward early, though it is worth nothing this is not a run-off type sprinter, and Sharp Azteca will respond to his rider's cues.

After that, things get a little trickier. It's also fair to assume Collected (5), who was well off his best when stalking the pace in the San Antonio, will be tapped early for speed today by Mike Smith. But is it right to just assume Collected will show that pace? He was awfully flat in the San Antonio, and came to a sharp peak last summer into the fall. It's possible Collected has lost his edge and won't be able to keep up.

We also have to wonder about Toast of New York (9). This was a horse with strong tactical speed in his pre-stallion period, and (of course overseas racing unfolds at a slower tempo than in the US) he did lead in his comeback run prepping for the Pegasus.

So we get to Gun Runner. Gun Runner is naturally fast, but make no mistake: He will rate as need be. In his recent major workouts at Fair Grounds, his work-mate has taken the lead and Gun Runner has followed. If they are flying up front, Gun Runner doesn't have to get involved.

There are two plausible good Gun Runner trips. First, Collected can't show his old speed, Toast of New York doesn't really keep up, and Gun Runner gets a perfect pressing trip outside Sharp Azteca. Second, Collected is sent and goes up to press Sharp Azteca, Toast of New York can't really keep up, and Gun Runner gets a perfect stalking trip outside, in the clear, and just behind the speeds. Toast of New York could be the key. If he is sent, and if he is fast enough, that makes things trickier for Gun Runner and might mean the circumstances dictate Gun Runner tactics, rather than the other way around. It also increases the chances for a really hot early and middle tempo and increases the likelihood of someone (West Coast? Gunnevera?) not involved in the early scrums coming over on top for the win.

But we're about to find out how it all shakes out.