Race 6: It’s essential to look back and analyze the sixth race on Jan. 20, which serves as the focal point for many of the entrants in this heat. Jan. 20 was a day that featured a strong rail bias, which has been confirmed by subsequent performances of horses running back out of that card. The two favorites in this event, Scarf It Down (4) and Sicilia Mike (3), finished a neck apart in second and third that day. Scarf It Down has not raced since then, missing a scheduled start Feb. 10 at this level that four of today’s rivals contested. Whereas Sicilia Mike rode the rail two back when running into second late, Scarf It Down was never inside, racing one to two paths off the rail throughout. All things considered, Scarf It Down ran the better race. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and both of these horses have shown the ability to close from off the pace. They must be used, but neither figures to offer much value. Professor Snape (8) seems like a slightly better option. He was compromised by stalking two to three wide on Jan. 20 and returned with an improved performance on Feb. 10, chasing an honest pace in the mud. He figures to go off at a higher price than the aforementioned two but must avoid a speed duel with horses like I Want Mo, Shoe Loves Shoe, and Buddy Anthony. I want to get a bit more creative because I think you can make a reasonable case for the fourth horse exiting that Jan. 20 affair. Set the Trappe (2) was beaten by today’s rivals when eighth that day. However, he got an absolutely impossible trip. His rider made no attempt to save ground and let him race five wide around much of the far turn. Even over a fair racetrack, that’s a poor trip, yet this day featured a rail bias. Prior to that, you can make more excuses. He had no business going a mile on Nov. 16. His two starts at Belmont last fall were markedly better, yet he didn’t get ideal trips in those races either, as he was shuffled out of position on Oct. 28 and broke poorly on Sept. 24. This horse showed last summer that he is indeed capable of running speed figures fast enough to put him in the mix, and I think it’s a good sign that his new connections are keeping him at this starter-allowance level rather than dropping him in class.

Race 7: Guick (8) and Dynamax Prime (7) are likely to vie for favoritism in this spot, yet each runner has its flaws. Guick’s standing as one of a perceived likely winner of this race is based primarily on his effort two back, in which he beat claiming company by over 5 lengths. However, he did so by taking advantage of one of the strongest rail biases that we have witnessed during the entire winter meet. He was subsequently stepped up to this level last time and proved to be no match for Blewitt. Some may interpret his second-place finish that day as some sort of validation of his prior performance, but it was actually a much weaker effort. There was very little in the way of quality behind Blewitt that day, and Guick just held on to beat Holy Week, a longshot in this race, by merely a length. I think he’s one to take a shot against here. Dynamax Prime’s overall form is far superior to that of the co-favorite. He’s coming out of tough stakes races and has previously been competitive at this N1X allowance level. The only problem with him is that George Weaver has fairly poor numbers with runners coming off layoffs on the dirt. Furthermore, Dynamax Prime had previously been entered for a $25,000 tag prior to getting scratched in favor of this spot. I think these two are beatable, so my top pick is Blugrascat’s Smile (3). I realize that he’s achieved the majority of his success at Finger Lakes, but his recent efforts at Aqueduct are actually not as bad as they may seem. He ran well in the slop behind the talented duo of Clutch Cargo and Blewitt two back, and last time was hindered by a 3-wide trip over a track that was favoring runners on the inside. He may need the top two to underperform in order to win this, but that seems like a strong possibility.

Race 8: The probable favorite is War Heroine (2), who comes off a turf-stakes win racing down the hill at Santa Anita. She had previously handled the dirt when winning her debut at Del Mar last fall, and she owns the two highest dirt TimeformUS Speed Figures in the race. You can make the argument that she is clearly the horse to beat, especially given Peter Miller’s strong record in New York. Nevertheless, I’m somewhat skeptical of her. Her pedigree is strongly geared toward turf. She got on the right surface last time, and I’m just not sure that she’s going to respond willingly to moving back to dirt and stretching out to the farthest distance she’s ever encountered. I prefer the local horse Midnight Disguise (3). It’s true that she would have been much more formidable had this race been carded at nine furlongs around two turns, but I’m not opposed to her turning back to the one-turn mile. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so she should get to use her ample stamina in the late stages. There are so many fillies in this race who have serious questions to answer, and I just can’t get past the idea that Midnight Disguise is the most reliable option. If I had to throw in one other, I’d use Sara Street (1). Kiaran McLaughlin has good numbers stretching horses out off maiden wins, and she’s bred to get the mile.

Race 9: In the finale, I could go either way between the two favorites, Lune Lake (2) and My Lightnin Strike (3). They have both run fast enough to win a race like this but neither one’s form really excites me. The other horse to include is clearly the first time starter Scripted (9), who has some pedigree and goes out for a capable debut barn.

The Play:

{All A's} for $1
{3 A's with 1 B} for $0.50
{3 A's with 1 C} for $0.50
{2 A's with 2 B's} for $0.50