Fast and firm for Louisiana Derby Day at Fair Grounds. For some reason the portable inner turf rail is set at 5 feet rather than being down altogether ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ . No chance of rain; forecast high 80 degrees. It's very windy right now - at nearby NO Lakefront Airport wind at a steady 20 mph from the south gusting to 30. The forecast calls for the wind to diminish somewhat through the day. The Fair Grounds grandstand faces north, so a south wind comes over and around a large building, creating a swirling effect out on the racetrack.

Talked about the scratches and non-scratches affecting today's four graded stakes in an earlier DRF Live post. All the early changes are listed at the bottom of this post. Note that Jose Ortiz now rides America's Tale (#3) in the FG Oaks.

Not much rain in NOLA recently. Turf speed carried very well on Friday's card with the rail at the same position, and that's something to consider as things get rolling on this marathon 14-race program. The main event on grass, the G2, $300K Mervin Muniz, race 9, is a totally paceless affair on paper and vexing from that perspective. I still think Synchrony (#1) gets it done, and he is one of the few horses I actually actively like on this card, but the chance of a muddled scrum does temper wagering enthusiasm.

Happy to report that the main track was NOT biased on Friday. The fear was the surface would be very fast and inside / speed favoring; in the past, when the main track has played that way the day before a multi-stakes Saturday, it often has played the same way on the big card. Here's strongly hoping yesterday's main-track trend continues and we get a level playing field.

I picked Noble Indy (#2) to win the main event, the $1M LA Derby, race 11, but my confidence level is about the same as the colt's likely win price - not all that great.

Race 1: Scratch:  #4, #6

Race 2: No Changes

Race 3: Scratch:  #8, #10, #15

Race 4: Scratch: #10

Race 5: Scratch:  #4   Overweight: #2+1

Race 6: Scratch:  #1, #2, #13

Race 7: Scratch: #13, #14, #16

Race 8: Scratch: #6  Overweights: #2+2, #5+1

Race 9: Overweights: #2+1, #3+3, #6+2, #7+1

Race 10: Scratch: #5, #7   Jockey Change: #3 Jose Ortiz   Black Gold 5 carryover: $42,064

Race 11: No Changes

Race 12: Scratch: #4, #6, #13

Race 13: Scratch: #2, #12, #13, #14, #15   Unpublished Workout: #8 March 9 FG 4f 48.4 b f

Race 14: Scratch: #9, #13, #14, #15, #16   Overweights: #4+1, #8+2