Nine races at Aqueduct this afternoon, getting underway at 1:20 ET.  The track is "good" and after a series of upsets on Sunday's card, there is a carryover of nearly $16k in the Pick 6 pool.  

The first race goes through Stan the Man, who has to be considered at least somewhat unlucky to still be a maiden after putting up Beyers of 90+ in each of his last four starts.  He has the get the mile, but he is the horse to beat.

If he loses again, it will likely be to second-time starter Anjadeen, who finished behind Stan the Man in his lone start to date while chasing from the outside over a track that featured a strong rail.  

Anjadeen ran well enough there to be considered a real threat in this race, and his trainer does good work with this type of horse - Kiaran McLaughlin, past five years, second-time starter, maiden, sprint to route on dirt, NY:  10 for 39, 26%, $2.53 ROI.

In the 4th race, you can scratch the ML favorite Nolinski.  I was going to try to beat him with recent maiden winner Mr. Hot Rocks, who just posted his first career win last weekend for Linda Rice, but we'll see what kind of price he is now.  

Race 6 appeared to be an interesting maiden for NY-bred 3yo fillies over a one-turn mile, though it, too, lost the ML favorite with the scratch of Lady Moyne.  Take Charge Aubrey and Youmakemeblush have also been scratched, leaving a field of just five.  

My idea in the race was to try to get second-time starter Zecha to improve, but in such a short field much of the value in a horse like her may be removed.  

Zecha surely will have to improve to win this, even after scratches, but she is interesting from a couple of different angles. She was no factor in her first career start, which was contested over a wet track, but she raced wide every step of the way in that race, which was contested over a track that was favoring the inside, and she is also strongly bred to stretch out. 

Three more scratches in the 7th, leaving another field of five (including Rudy's entry).  I wind up with Holland Road on top after the scratches, and he does appear to be the horse to beat.  I would have given Son of Mine a chance in this race, but he is coupled with Lucky Town and is not as interesting with the entry staying intact.

Tribecca is the horse to beat in the 8th following his career-best 94 Beyer effort when 3rd in the Hollie Hughes last time.  He is not my kind of horse at a short price, as that Hollie Hughes is really the only race he has run that gives him any kind of edge on this field, and he was 59/1 that day.  

It may be wishful thinking, but I am giving his stablemate Bavaro one final chance in this race.  Bavaro is beginning to confirm that his big win in his second career start had everything to do with the bias (12/17/2016 was a strong rail day on the inner), but he has tried some pretty tough spots since hanging up that 101 Beyer, and he is third off the layoff for his new trainer today.  While Tribecca also has speed, Bavaro should be sending for the lead from his inside post.  

A full rundown of the scratches and changes here.  That Pick 6 carryover begins in race 4 at approx. 2:52 ET.