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Thumb_brad-free Brad Free , Santa Anita , 04/05/2018 , Race 3 - DRF Live Posted : Apr 5, 2018, 11:35 AM

Santa Anita pick six carryover, takeout respite

A traditional pick six carryover of $339,082 Thursday at Santa Anita offsets effective takeout that exceeds 35 percent – 23.68 standard takeout and 11.44 allocated to the single-ticket jackpot (15 percent of net).

The good news Thursday is the carryover negates the take. Assuming $1 million in new money, effective takeout will be approximately zero. One million in, one million out. The pick six covers races 3-8. Preview …

Race 3 – All six in this $16k claiming route have a shot including sprinter Here and There (1), who could set the pace while stretching out. The main has played recently fair at a mile and a sixteenth, with perhaps a slight lean to forwardly placed runners. I’ll Wrap It Up (3) could get a great trip alone in second. The 5-2 second choice would be a gutty single right off the bat. Four others are closers, virtually inseparable.

Race 4 – Three key contenders in this filly-mare sprint, a $50k claiming starter allowance non-winners of two. All three ran well last out: Avail (6), Mixed Emotions (5) and Tiny Tina (4). Debut winner Donut Girl (1) merits inclusion. The rail is fine, 15 percent winners this meet at six furlongs. Furthermore, interesting workout by Donut Girl since being claimed by Hector Palma.

According to Toby Turrell in the Daily Racing Form Clocker Report, Donut Girl on March 28, “worked best of a team over recent winner Shifty Dancer.” Shifty Dancer is 2-for-2 including a starter allowance win last out.

Race 5 – Diva La Mousse (8) ran the best race of her eight-start career last out, at this maiden-50 level over this downhill turf course. However, the front-runner picks up nine pounds and faces a challenging course profile. The last eight turf sprints were won from the middle or back of the pack. Dropper California Breeze (1) and second-time starter Foxtail (3) figure in the mix.

California Breeze is a must-use based on commentary by Turrell in the DRF Clocker Report after her March 25 work: “Rock-solid drill when getting the best over San Francisco Mile hopeful Syntax.” That is huge, because Syntax finished a troubled fourth last weekend in the SF Mile. He would have won with a better trip. Big dirt drill by California Breeze, outworking a graded stakes-caliber turf horse.

Race 6 – Low-level filly-mare sprinters race for an $8k claim tag, led by favorite Foxy Fresh (6). Either of her last two starts would be fast enough. The knock is both races were at five and one-half furlongs; this race is six furlongs.

Race 7 – Cal-bred fillies and mares race a mile on turf, this handicapper’s top selection is Speakers (1) at 5-1. Her comeback was a toss. She got keen, pulled, made a big middle move and went flat. She settled down since in workouts; her runner-up finish two back would be just about fast enough. The program favorite, and second choice by this handicapper, is Lostintranzlation (4); front-runner X S Gold (9) made the DRF “horses-to-watch” list following her third-place finish last out. Deep race.

Race 8 – First-time starter Leroy (4) is the horse to beat in this Cal-bred maiden sprint. He is the 7-2 program favorite. Assuming he runs as well as he works, Leroy is the most probable winner on the card.

First post Thursday is 12 noon. Post time for race 3, first leg of the pick six, is listed at 1:04.

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