Fast on the main track for the five graded stakes later today and there are two turf races - one of each course. Race #2 is on the inner (listed as "good") and Race #11 is on the outer (firm).
The pick six has not been hit since last Saturday. That only covers two racing cards, but there is a carryover in excess of $165k beginning in Race #5.
The first turf race is for older maidens over nine furlongs and features several Florida shippers. I didn't love the races from the horses shipping up from Gulfstream but thought that Chad Brown's Azzedine, who made his debut at Tampa, ran well in what appeared to be a pretty strong race.
I made him my top pick, and am also interested in using Country Court. County Court is returning from a long layoff, but he began with some promise while landing in some tough races early on and he is listed as a new gelding for his first start back.
The first graded stakes on the card is the Grade 2 Gazelle, for 3yo fillies over a mile and 1/8. Midnight Disguise isn't a particularly fast filly, but she keeps winning and has no distance limitations, which is certainly to her advantage this afternoon.
I took a shot against her with My Miss Lilly, who was 3rd in the Busher last time, behind Midnight Disguise. My Miss Lilly did catch a little traffic in the stretch of that race, while Midnight Disguise was closing out in the clear, and a better trip could help her turn the tables today. She just has to see out the nine furlongs.
The Grade 1 Carter (Race #8) drew a strong field. Todd Pletcher's lightly-raced Army Mule has been installed as the ML favorite. He is pretty tough to take any kind of short price on after only two starts separated by a long layoff, but he appears to have plenty of ability, and he ran a fast race off the layoff at Gulfstream.
Awesome Slew looks like the class of the race and the horse to beat, though he is making his first start off the layoff. I'm using him, but prefer the streaking Skyler's Scramjet, who is jumping up in class again following a dominant win the Grade 3 Tom Fool over this track last month.
Skyler's Scramjet stretches out to seven-eighths for this after posting three straight wins over six furlongs, but he has a handy running style, and he finishes his races as though the added furlong will be no problem.
Pletcher will have the likely favorite in the Grade 3 Bay Shore (Race #9) in National Flag, who won his 3yo debut at Gulfstream last month with a 98 Beyer. Another 98 would likely be good enough today, but I didn't love that race overall and will be trying to beat him today.
The two horses I will use against him are the logical Engage (making his 3yo debut today after dominating the Futurity in his final start as a 2yo), and the NY-bred Aveenu Malcainu, who has a solid 2yo foundation to build on and returns sprinting, which where his future lies.
I have nothing clever to say about the Grade 2 Wood Memorial (Race #10), which appears to go through the two favorites.
I liked Entice's effort in the Gotham last month, and don't think that stretching back out around two-turns is a negative for him.
Bob Baffert's Restoring Hope seems like a work in progress, but he really improved to break his maiden last time while running through the wire at the finish for the first time in his three starts. He's a dangerous horse as the likely second choice.
First post coming up at 1pm ET, and there is plenty happening around the country, as well. Good luck!