Race 7:   3 - 1 - 8 - 9

Pauseforthecause (9) has probably run the best turf races, but race dynamics could be her undoing. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with speeds like Forever Daisy and Flat Calm also likely to challenge for the lead. I’m also somewhat skeptical about Pauseforthecause going route distances, so I’m taking a shot against her. Purely Lucky (1) ran well in her turf starts as a 2-year-old and has a right to be competitive here with routine improvement. The same goes for Goodbye Brockley (8), who comes into this race off a series of stamina-building workouts. She ran well on grass last July and may possess some turf talent. I’m using both, but my top pick is BREEZY GAL (3) in her turf debut. While she handled dirt in her maiden win two back, she had everything her own way up front and was able to scamper clear late. I think she accomplished that on class alone since she’s really bred to be better on this surface. The Factor is a 14 percent turf sire, and her dam is a half-sister to turf stakes winner Unbridled Humor. She should work out a good stalking trip under Jose Lezcano, and I think she’s one of the few runners who will offer decent value in this spot.

Race 8:   8 - 1 - 9 - 6

Horoscope (1) will attract support as he returns from a yearlong layoff for new trainer Rudy Rodriguez. He was a promising three-year-old when last seen. Despite taking 9 starts to break his maiden, he finished second to talented runners Long Haul Bay and Can You Diggit before impressively winning by over 6 lengths. However, he has some serious questions to answer. Not only does he have to face winners off a long layoff, but he’s stretching out to a mile, a distance which may be a little far for him. While it’s true that he’s not facing the strongest opposition, there is one horse that I think has an outside chance to beat him. BLAME THE THIEF (8) has had limited opportunities to run on dirt, but he’s performed well enough over the surface to suggest that he deserves a chance here. His only win came going this one mile distance at Aqueduct. He did benefit from a speed favoring surface that day, but he still ran well. His only dirt start since then came in a 1 1/8 mile allowance race at Saratoga, when he raced wide against a gold rail. There is not an abundance of early speed in this field, so I would hope to see him sitting just off the flank of Horoscope in the early going.

Race 9:   1 - 9 - 7 - 4

Pure Silver (4) is probably going to go off as the favorite, but she doesn’t really excite me at a short price. She’s run well enough to win this on a number of occasions, but she hasn’t really moved forward since early in her 2-year-old season. She was supposed to win last time when riding a good rail for most of the way. I think her rivals can step up to beat her this time. The likeliest candidate is Orchid Party (9), who returns on just three days’ rest following another impressive win. She’s steadily climbed the class ladder and has earned a spot in this race. Furthermore, over the past five years, Rudy Rodriguez is 4 for 5 (80 percent, $3.16 ROI) with horses returning in five days or fewer following a win. I’m using her, but my top selection is WEGETSDAMUNNYS (1). There is not much early speed in this field, and I think Rajiv Maragh can take advantage of that situation on this quick filly. She showed good tactical speed in her early starts at Finger Lakes while running deceptively well in her two starts against winners. Last time, in her only NYRA start, she raced wide throughout on a day when you wanted to be toward the rail. That effort is not as bad as it seems, and I think she’s going to give a much better account of herself here. I’ll use her with the two favorites, and I’ll even throw in Our Super Nova (7), who has improved significantly in recent weeks.

Race 10:   1 - 12 - 11 - 3

Appealing Briefs (12) is the horse to beat, but he’s clearly had his chances at this level. He continues to run well, but he’s been in a few spots where he really should have won. Now he’s drawn the outside post position in the 12-horse affair, and I’m inclined to take a shot against him. The obvious alternative is Battle of Saratoga (3), but I’m not totally convinced that this horse can transfer his dirt form to turf. Union Rags is not a strong turf sire, winning with just 5% of his starters on that surface. While there is some grass breeding on his dam’s side, his pedigree is not overwhelmingly geared towards turf. If I’m taking a first time turfer, I want to bet CROSSWAYS (1). This horse hinted at having real ability in his debut when he overcame slow break and three-wide trip to finish second. That performance was even better than it seems since there appeared to be a rail bias that day. I can forgive his subsequent performance going a mile since that was a strong field and the race turned out to be a demanding affair over a speed-favoring surface. This colt is undoubtedly bred for turf, being by 14% turf sire Quality Road out of a dam whose 3 wins all came on turf. He possesses the early speed to take advantage of his rail post position. The other interesting horse to consider at a bigger price is La Manche (11), who was completely eliminated rounding the far turn in his debut at Gulfstream. He appeared to be fading at the time, but would have finished much closer without that trouble. Bill Mott has decent numbers with second time starters in turf routes.