Fast dirt, turf courses 'good' for the first Saturday card of the spring/summer meet. The feature is a competitive running of the Elusive Quality over seven-eighths on the Widener course. It goes as Race 9.
The opener, also over seven furlongs on the Widener, features a matchup between I'm Betty G who has speed and is dropping out of several stakes races, and Abbreviate who figures to appreciate getting back out to this distance after trying to rally behind a front-running winner going six at Aqueduct.
I prefer Abbreviate, as she looked like a filly of some potential while winning back-to-back races here last fall and has since been in some unsuitable spots.
Race 2 seems pretty likely to be won by Three Goals off the claim for Jason Servis. He has run the fastest races overall, and a performance anything like his race three back for a $50k tag will turn this race into a runaway for him.
The problem with being too confident in Three Goals is his last race. He was a heavy favorite dropping in class and never looked like he was going to win while setting/contesting the pace with a first-time starter, who left him behind on the turn and finished 2nd.
Depending on price I could take a shot against him with Guy American Dream. Forgetting about his turf try last week, Guy American Dream actually ran well two starts back while contesting a fast pace at this level, before tiring in the stretch and settling for 3rd.
I will only use two horses in the 3rd - Ride the Sunset and Congruity, with the former being the main focus of any plays.
Michael Wonderful defeated both Ride the Sunset and Congruity when they matched up in a maiden race last November, but he hasn't run since and returns for a trainer who does not have strong numbers off of layoffs like this on turf.
Scratch Realm out of the 4th, leaving a field of only five. I suppose any of them could win with their best race, though the recent form of some of the better horses leaves something to be desired.
Take Your Guns is not really my kind of horse at a short price, but I really don't like what we have seen lately from horses like Adulator and Dontyouknowsomething, and Tusk just looks like a bit of an outsider.
Uncle Sigh's form since coming back to dirt is fine, and I'll use him a little off the claim, but overall I don't see the edge in getting heavily involved in this race.
I guess the uninteresting Frontier Market is a likely winner of the 5th at a short price, based mostly on the competition he is facing.
Labeq has proven himself to not be very good, though switching to turf could move him up. It has to move him up quite a bit, however, if Frontier Marker shows up with his last race.
Union Ranks is by a poor turf sire, but he has grass on the bottom of his pedigree for a very good trainer, and firsters Indurate and Domain are both well-bred for top connections. Perhaps one of those three can get in there with the favorite at a better price.
The 6th is an open-looking turf route for older horses. I'm going to take a small shot with King of Spades at a price. He posted his lone win in NY last year vs. claimers for Brad Cox, but he went on from there to hold his own in several races at this level and over a variety of distances.
Race 8 may be as simple as taking ML favorite Polar Jet, who enters off the back of three straight figures that are faster than anything his competition has yet managed to run, but I'm not so sure.
I think you have to use him in the pick four, but I don't really care for his overall form, even with the improvement he has shown for Linda Rice.
I'll try to beat him with the improving Salute With Honor. I like this horse turning back into a sprint that is not lacking for early pace.
The Elusive Quality may ultimately come down to trips, with several contenders among the ten entered to run. I picked Ready for Rye, because he does possess the tactical speed to get a trip in this race, and, overall, I just think he might be a bit better on turf, even though he races on this surface infrequently. He probably really prefers a wet main track, but his turf form is actually solid vs. some strong competition and he should be a fair price in this race.
Commute was the other horse for me, based mostly on distance and the fact that he can be forward in this race, which does not contain a ton of pace. His races two and three back at Woodbine were both good, though excuses are really not there for him in either of them after getting control up front.
In the finale, I'm taking a shot with Breeze Burner. He is an unknown on turf, but he is a fast horse who has always run well when at the right level, and he has enough pedigree to handle this surface switch (his dam is a sister to a graded-stakes quality turf horse in Baryshnikov, and his second dam was a multiple Grade 3 winner sprinting on grass). I'll use him with Dancetrack, Final Chapter and Excluded.
First post 1:30 ET with the Elusive Quality scheduled for approx. 5:50 ET.