Payne (10) is undoubtedly the horse to beat as he returns from a layoff, now in the Chad Brown barn. While his 2-year-old races did not come up exceptionally fast in terms of speed figures, he did face strong competition in those races. The winner of his debut, Quip, would go on to win the Tampa Bay Derby as a 3-year-old. Dream Baby Dream, who ran him down last time, has since placed in a couple of stakes races and was briefly on the Kentucky Derby trail. Payne ran very well within the context of that Nov. 25 race, as he contested the pace four wide on the turn, took command at the head of the stretch, and just failed to sustain his bid as he was cut down in the last sixteenth. A mere repeat of that effort may be good enough to win here, and it’s likely that he’s improved since then.

I’m intrigued by first-time starter HERSH (4). This colt debuts for former Brown assistant Dermot Magner and is likely to go off at a significantly higher price than the aforementioned pair. He is bred to be precocious as a son of Jimmy Creed and worked a furlong in 10 2/5 seconds at the OBS sale as a 2-year-old. While his recent work tab looks pretty nondescript at first glance, I was able to watch his drill two back on June 15 and was impressed. I don’t know if his unraced workmate has any ability, but he completely drowned her as he gobbled up ground coming to the wire under no encouragement. Hersh actually put in the serious part of his drill on the gallop-out, as he visibly lengthened his stride and put away his rival by 15 to 20 lengths by the time they reached the clubhouse turn. I don’t know if this barn cranks them up to win their debuts, but it's apparent that this horse has ability.
 

THE PLAY

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,6,8,10
Trifecta: 4,10 with 4,10 with 1,3,6,8,9