Race 1:   2 – 4 – 6 – 3

While I acknowledge that heavy favorite Social Paranoia (4) is a very likely winner of this race, I think there are a couple of interesting first-time starters to include. Obviously, his Pletcher stablemate, Meade (6), has to be considered. The son of Street Sense is out of a stakes-winning dam who is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Callback. This yearling purchase seems to be working decently for his debut. However, the newcomer that I want to use more prominently is Dillon Rocks (2) for Robert Barbara. This barn doesn’t get very many live juveniles, but they can certainly get one to win early. Dillon Rocks is out of a dam who is a half-sister to graded stakes placed dirt horse Gold City and debut winner First Down. He worked an impressive 21 1/5 quarter mile at the OBS sale earlier this year, and he has trained very forwardly since then. He’s easily handled a turf-meant workmate in some of his recent drills while laying down some fast times.

Race 2:   6 – 2 – 7 – 4

This is a very competitive optional claiming race, in which I think it’s important to note which horses are moving in the right direction, as opposed to those whose form may be on the downswing. In some ways, Phi Beta Express (7) is the horse to beat given his string of solid dirt sprint performances. It’s somewhat perplexing that they tried the turf last time given his lack of pedigree for that surface, but now he’s back on the main track. He’s dangerous, but he’s going to have company up front from Mr. Brix. Life in Shambles (2) and King Kranz (5) are difficult to assess, since they ran well over the winter, but their recent efforts leave something to be desired. Both are in for the tag. Gold for the King (4) has a right to take a step forward second off the layoff, but he’s not exactly the most trustworthy type either. All of these runners have had many chances, and I’m actually most interested in the least experienced member of this cast. Breaking the Rules (6) is not going to be a very big price, but I think he’s a pretty talented young horse. He stepped up with a big effort to beat solid allowance performer Professor Snape two back before they tried stretching him out in the Easy Goer. Little went right for him that day, as he was unwisely dragged off the pace in the early part of the race and found himself in an uncomfortable position behind a wall of horses for much of the running. He had to swing to the far outside in the stretch to get a clear path and he never stopped running. Ultimately, he may not want to go that far, so I like this turnback.

Race 3:   9 – 8 – 1 – 3

American Guru (8) may be a single for many in this early Pick-5, since he just appears to be considerably faster than all of his American-based rivals. The stretch-out to a mile is a hurdle, but he didn’t seem to have too much trouble seeing out the 7 furlongs last time while facing a much tougher field than the one he meets today. I’m hardly against him, but he will have to overcome a potentially taxing pace scenario, with speeds like Adonis Creed, Nate’s Tizzy, and Attribute drawn to his inside. I’m using him, but I’m equally as interested in Australian shipper Sarrasin (9). I’m fully aware that this race is merely a prep for longer events at Saratoga like the Bowling Green and Sword Dancer, but it’s undeniable that this horse has real ability, having faced world-class runners like Gailo Chop, Winx, and Erupt in his races. He’s been plagued by layoffs throughout his career, but he’s clearly good enough to win a race of this caliber if anywhere close to his best. There should be an honest pace developing ahead of this late runner, and he may also appreciate the addition of Lasix.

Race 4:   6 – 5 – 3 – 8

This race has been brought back from last Sunday’s cancelled card, and new face Red Knight (5) is a welcome addition. This lightly-raced New York-bred has run well in all of his races, falling just two noses shy of going undefeated, and is simply the horse to beat. However, he’s also going to be a very short price in a competitive race. He only finished a length ahead of Im the Captain Now (6) last time, and I thought the Barclay Tagg trainee ran a brave race in his first start against winners. Im the Captain Now has a tendency to be somewhat pace-compromised given his late-running style, but he seems to be in the best form of his career now as a 4-year-old. He’s my primary alternative to the favorite.

Race 5:   3 – 4 – 9 – 6

On a day that is hardly lacking competitive events, this fifth race is perhaps most confounding of all. I am not enamored with the likely favorites. Nigel’s Destiny (6) earned a fast speed figure last time, but did so against claiming company. This is a completely different situation, and I think he’s vulnerable at a short price. A couple of horses exit the May 12 allowance race at this level, and I’m not a great fan of either one. Wine Not (2) earned a competitive speed figure with his fourth place effort, but I wonder about the legitimacy of that number. Almost every horse to return out of that race has significantly underperformed in their subsequent starts. Exulting (9) lost all chance in the early going that day as his gate issues once again got the best of him. He has the talent to win this, but he’s not one I can trust. I tried to make a case for last-out maiden winners Split Verdict (4) and Candygram (5). The former interests me more, as he feels like a horse that still has plenty of room for improvement, but the layoff is a concern. Ultimately, I decided to get a little wacky here. It’s nearly impossible to make a case for Harangue (3) based on his published past performances, since he’s run slower against weaker competition. However, the fact that he’s running in this race is probably significant. This barn has been known to significantly improve horses, and a pair of DRF Formulator stats suggest that this gelding will show up with a better effort. Over the past five years, Juan Carlos Guerrero is 9 for 37 (24 percent, $3.88 ROI) off 90 to 180 day layoffs in dirt races. Furthermore, during the same 5-year period, he is 12 for 30 (40 percent, $2.50 ROI) off trainer switches in dirt routes. Perhaps most notably, Harangue’s last two workouts match up with Zanotti, who is contesting the Suburban later on the card.