This River Memories is a very tricky race. Even though I’m picking against her, I acknowledge that Estrechada (5) is far and away the most accomplished horse in this field. She ran well in her return effort in the Sheepshead Bay against significantly tougher competition, and she figures to be tough to beat here if she merely repeats that effort. I would assume that the trainer switch to Robertino Diodoro is merely a function of the fact that they plan on campaigning her on the East coast again this summer. She’s the most likely winner, but this is a tricky race. I’m not thrilled with any of the fillies coming out of the May 20 allowance race won by Flower Fashion (3). The turf course was fairly soft that day and none of them sport prior form that suggests they can compete with the best runners in this field. Violet Blue (7) seems like the dangerous newcomer, since she ran legitimately well off the layoff last time and may just be moving forward at the right time. I am somewhat concerned that no one else showed up in the race she exits, but she nevertheless ran an impressive speed figure.

I’m using these fillies, but my top pick is SILVER STEP (6), who figures to go off at an enticing price. Chistophe Clement’s runners have really turned things around in recent weeks. Through Friday, he had won with 7 of his last 16 turf runners at Belmont after starting the meet off slowly. This mare’s two U.S. efforts have been disappointing, but I get the feeling that we haven’t yet seen the best out of her. Her French form is actually quite strong, as she was a Group 3 winner as a three-year-old. I think it’s important to note that her best effort last year came when they stretched her out to 10 furlongs in the Prix de la Pepiniere. Among the horses that she beat that day was eventual Just a Game winner A Raving Beauty, so there were some quality animals in that group. She hasn’t yet displayed that form in this country, but I like her stretching out, and she has trained more forwardly in recent weeks. It seems that Clement had used her as a morning target for some of his more well-regarded runners earlier in the year. Yet recently she’s picked up her training, having outworked stakes-caliber stablemate Palinodie in two straight drills coming into this race.
 

THE PLAY

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5,7
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 1,2,3,4,7