Surface Strike (8) is probably going go off as the favorite as he drops in for a tag for the first time. While he’s run his best races on dirt, I won’t be surprised to see him handle turf since his debut on this surface came against much tougher company. I’m not opposed to him, but I think there are other ways to go. You have to respect Time Expired (6) off his last effort. Catch a Cab, who won that race, has obviously improved in subsequent starts, but there are no horses of that quality in this field.

However, the horse I want to bet is longshot NINJA BOYS (5), who gets on turf for the first time. This runner's debut came back very slow, but the winner returned to run significantly faster in his subsequent start, and two also-rans returned to win on turf. Ninja Boys got completely outrun early in that race but made up a ton of ground to be fourth. While he doesn’t have obvious turf pedigree, his sire, Simmard – who has been a disappointment – is more of a turf influence. Furthermore, he’s a half-brother to Bullheaded Boy (by Bullsbay), who did win three turf races. The way this horse moves, with his high-striding action, leads me to believe that turf may be his preferred surface. I like the rider switch to David Cohen, and he should appreciate the drop in class.
 

THE PLAY

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,8,12