First full week of the meet kicks off with a big two-day carryover in the pick six. As of now, we are 'good' on the main track and 'good' on the turf.
A quick run through the pick six sequence, which begins with 2yo NY-bred maiden fillies in race 5.
Not an easy race to open the sequence, though I suppose the wagering might enlighten us a bit. For now, I'm mostly interested in using #2 Evan's Nice Now, #3 Empress Sophia, #6 Time Warp & #9 Chillinwithfriends in some combination.
Race 6: #6 Come Dancing was impressive in each of her first two career starts, which were separated by a long layoff. Yes, she had all the best of it on a loose lead when ringing up a 96 Beyer in her December return, but she also ran a very good race as a first time starter and something clearly went wrong in the Interborough six months ago. She is a little dicey off the layoff but she is pretty good when right and perfectly drawn on the outside.
I'm interested to see what #5 Pray for Leslie can do as she steps up to face better horses with a 2 for 2 record but, speaking of easy leads, she got loose against a weaker field last time. I remain a Purrfect Miss (#4) fan and will use her, but last time was the time to have her when clear on the lead over a track that was kind to speed at a good price.
Race 7: On the turf #6 Hollywood Cat is likely going to get bombed at the windows first off the Jason Servis claim, and why not? Servis has been the hottest trainer in NY over the past few months and he is 6 for his last 9 off the claim on turf at Saratoga ($5.01 ROI). Hollywood Cat got back to her career-best figure when narrowly prevailing in her most recent start and she ran well up here over this course and distance in NY-bred stakes company last summer.
#1 English Dancer had improved for Bill Mott and defeated Hollywood Cat on the square back in May. She is a contender but I actually would have liked her more if we were off the turf.
#8 Hope's Roar took a while to figure things out but she has won three times dating back to her maiden breaker up here last summer and she ran an underrated race last time, closing from last in a race that was dominated up front by an in-form Transaction Tax.
Not sure I think #11 Codrington is good enough, and her outside draw did her no favors, but she is off the claim for Mike Maker. Maybe try to fit her in if you can afford it.
I will be mostly 6-8, with a little 1.
Race 8: #1a Fox Rules is an underrated horse and is supposed to be tough in this spot with his early speed as he drops back to the level of his win three starts back at Aqueduct. There is other pace in this race, but he is a fighter and he ran well in tougher spots following that win in April.
I thought #8 Morrison was compromised by pace and perhaps distance last time while facing a couple of upwardly-mobile 3yo turf horses. He has Fox Rules to deal with here, but he has returned in good form this year and he has enough speed to work out a trip from his outside draw. I think he can go with these horses.
#7 Royal Blessing is a hard-hitting 9yo exiting a 90 Beyer performance at Indiana last month, where he was given a perfect trip and fell just short of an odds-on favorite at the wire. He may trip out in this race and feels like a horse that has to be used. It's been a while but he has run several good races in NY in the past.
Race 9: Scratch #2 Chalon from The Honorable Miss. I liked Chalon's chances a bit, but with her out, I am going to lean on the horse that defeated her in the Vagrancy back in May, #3 Kirby's Penny and the class-dropping #6 Finley'sluckycharm.
The former has held her form and continued improving since being re-claimed by Wesley Ward out of a win routing last spring, and she is adaptable to different pace scenarios. The latter is a Grade 1 winner and narrow loser of this race last summer. She was disappointing last time but a clear horse to beat if able to bounce back.
#5 Faypien can do better making the turf to dirt switch and getting back to sprinting on dirt for the first time since giving way in the Grade 1 La Brea last December, but it remains open to question just how good she is.
Race 10: On turf, I'm going with #11 Four Knights. He didn't run poorly at all while chasing wide throughout over a sloppy track last time, and his race on turf two back was a good effort while closing strongly from too far away after getting held up behind horses coming into the stretch.
#2 Moneigh Moproblems is logical on turf getting the class relief he needs and is a must-use in a bet like the pick six.
#5 Union Ranks is dropping for the first time which makes him one to consider. I don't love his turf races, and his sire is one to avoid on this surface, but his race two back makes him a contender.
#6 Bay Hill has to get back to one of his better races to factor here for a good trainer and #9 Novus is a wildcard dropping off the layoff with a trainer change for his 3yo debut. He did no running in his turf debut with a pace that fell apart in front of him, but he is eligible to improve if nothing else.