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Thumb_aragona__dave_twitter David Aragona , Saratoga , 07/30/2018 , Race 10 - DRF Live Posted : Jul 30, 2018, 5:48 PM

Lady Camille is a likely winner of the finale, but don't completely dismiss longshot Frosty Linz, who can outrun her odds

I think LADY CAMILLE (3) is a horse you can lean on in this finale. It’s worth watching her turf debut at Belmont last time, as she ran an exceptional race in defeat. The early pace of that race was fast for the distance, as all of the TimeformUS Pace Figures are color-coded red. Lady Camille was sent up to attack that pace soon after the start and was sent up four wide around the far turn. According to Trakus, she covered the most ground of any horse in that race, traveling 34 more feet than today’s rival Merlins Muse, who finished fourth. That was Lady Camille’s first start off a long layoff, and she figures to be fitter for this second start back. Michelle Nevin has done far better work with her turf horses in recent years, and this filly is clearly the one to beat in an otherwise competitive affair.

While I think Lady Camille is the most likely winner, I would recommend also using FROSTY LINZ (12) at a much larger price. She has run better than it appears in each of her turf starts, as she got shuffled back two races ago, and then chased a runoff leader through suicidal fractions last time. This filly has really improved on turf, and now she gets a jockey switch to Ricardo Santana, Jr., who has been riding very well.

I’ll use these fillies with Unparalleled (1), who has faced tougher horses in her prior starts, all of which came against maiden special weight company. She hasn’t quite run back to that solid third-place finish that ended her 2-year-old season in a pair of starts in 2018, so this drop in class is needed.

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