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Thumb_brad-free Brad Free , Del Mar , 08/01/2018 , Race 1 - DRF Live Posted : Aug 1, 2018, 10:33 AM

Del Mar Wednesday handicapping notes

Week three of the seven-week Del Mar summer meet begins on Wednesday. Preview …

Race 1 – Average field size is a robust 9.14 per race; a weak link is dirt routes. Only six entered this MSW; average dirt-route field size will be just 5.75. Stonegate (5) raced greenly and finished third last out, he is sitting on a win over Pleasant d’Oro (4), who covered a lot of ground racing wide and finishing second in front of Stonegate.

Race 2 – Can favorite Be a Lady (7) stay seven furlongs, or is she vulnerable? She won six races at six furlongs or less, but is 1 for 8 at six and one-half or more. The main track produced more forwardly placed winners during the second week: 52 percent of dirt sprints were won by a horse positioned one-two, compared to 23 percent the first week.

Race 3 – Cal-bred 2-year-old fillies sprint six furlongs; first-time starter Don’t Sell (7) is favored on works and pedigree. She is a sibling to debut winner Not Enough Eddie and How About Zero, runner-up in a stakes race first out. First-time starter Creative Instinct (1) posted a solid five-furlong gate move last week and looks “live.”

Race 4 – The rails go to 24 feet; favorite Brandothebartender (4) will rally late in this $40k claiming turf sprint. Top choice Krsto Skye (7) has tactical speed; 20-1 presser Incensed (11) could get bet down, possibly 10-1? Course profile: three of the six turf sprints won by the pacesetter. It's a small sample; this is the first rails-at-24 this meet.

(Note: Incensed is scratched, entered back in race 7 Thursday.)

Race 5 – Nine entered this dirt route. Stretch-runner Taniko (1) is favored dropping from N2X to $16k claiming N2L; Wise Curlin (2) and Polity (6) will keep the pace honest.

(Note: Polity is scratched, which boosts the chances of Wise Curlin.)

Race 6 – Del Mar longshots trained by Midwest-based Victoria Oliver are gold. The past five summers, Oliver is 7 for 28 at Del Mar; lowest win payoff $14.80. Oliver starts 3yo filly Over Thinking (3) against colts and geldings in this N1X turf marathon. It’s an odd spot, but Oliver’s record at Del Mar, the filly's current form and her 12-1 morning line make Over Thinking worth consideration. The horse to beat is Oscar Dominguez (7) as jockey Kent Desormeaux tries to snap out of an early-season funk (2 for 36).

Race 7 – No knocks on Lippy (6) in the CTBA Stakes; she looked good in her second victory last out at Pleasanton. CTBA favorites, however, won just 3 of the last 22.

Race 8 – Ten can run in this maiden-20 route. Good luck.

First post Wednesday, 2 p.m.

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