Saturday, August 4

- PICKS -
 
Race 1:   2 - 3 - 9 - 7  (Dirt: 11 - 2 - 1/1A - 10)
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 11 - 5  (Dirt: 1A - 11 - 7 - 15)
Race 3:   4 - 9 - 6 - 3
Race 4:   2 - 6 - 1 - 8  (Dirt: 1A - 9 - 3 - 5)
Race 5:   5 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 6:   4 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 7:   9 - 2 - 1/1A - 3
Race 8:   6 - 9 - 4 - 8
Race 9:   6 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 10:   2 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 11:   10 - 9 - 6 - 5

- TOP PLAYS -
 
RACE 3: RAGNAR LOTHBROK (#4)
I find it hard to take many of the runners dropping out of maiden special weight company. I suppose Preternatural is potentially the best suited to sprinting, but he hasn’t run that well in either of his starts and needs to turn around his form. One More Tom and Ninja Boys come out of the same June 13 race, but both of them are plodders that could be badly pace-compromised in this sprint. Our American Star has run some of the fastest speed figures, but this 21-race maiden is pretty hard to pick on top. I’m instead interested in a horse that Our American Star defeated last time. There is a serious lack of early speed in this race, unless some of the first time starters have early zip. I think that could make second time starter Ragnar Lothbrok a dangerous wire-to-wire threat. This horse ran deceptively well in his debut. He broke very slowly, but rushed up to chase the fast-breaking Leap to Glory through the first quarter mile. The early pace of that race was legitimate, and Ragnar Lothbrok showed a ton of speed to get involved in a duel after breaking so sluggishly. Horses like this are typically much more professional second time out, and I won’t be surprised to see him lead this field for a long way at what should be a generous price.
 

RACE 5: PRECIEUSE (#5) / PAS DE SOUCIS (#4)
I strongly prefer Precieuse of the two Chad Brown fillies in this race. Uni had run very well against 3-year-olds last season, winning the Sands Point in the fall, and her return as a 4-year-old was very encouraging, as she easily handled her stablemate Fifty Five. I’m certainly using her, but it’s possible that she needs this race off the layoff after experiencing a setback while preparing for a race back in May. Precieuse looks like the type of well-meant European import that Chad Brown has been known to unveil at this meet. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 10 (50 percent, $3.95 ROI) first off a trainer switch with foreign shippers on turf at Saratoga. This filly showed her quality last season by winning the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) in an upset. Despite coming into that race as an unheralded runner, she was extremely impressive in victory. I can excuse her final race of the season in the Coronation, as she unexpectedly ended up setting the pace, which may not have agreed with her. She has been drilling very forwardly in the mornings, apparently outworking some of her best stablemates. She’s a likely winner, but I also want to use Pas de Soucis, who should be an attractive price. This may be a tougher race than the Perfect Sting that she exits, but I thought she ran extremely well considering that she was three to four wide for her entire trip. She ended up making a premature move into contention at the top of the stretch and had every right to flatten out late. If Jose Lezcano can actually get her covered up this time, I think she can work her way into the mix. 
 

RACE 6: HERSH (#4)
Both of the maiden races at the center of this card appear to be loaded with talent. Whereas the 2-year-old event that goes as the 7th is primarily a guessing game, there is a bit more form to go on in this race. Business Cycle has to be considered the horse to beat off his fast runner-up finish last fall at Aqueduct. He earned the fastest speed figure of any horse in this race, and he faced some talented runners in that initial start, including eventual stakes winner Westwood. The questions surrounding him are fairly obvious. Where has he been for 9 months since that effort, and do you really want to take a 5-year-old maiden in a field of up and comers? This gelding has apparently been working very forwardly for his comeback, so I’m not exactly against him at a short price. I am interested in the horses exiting the 6th race on July 6 at Belmont. That appeared to be a loaded field of maidens and it came up a very fast race in terms of speed figures. I was highly intrigued by Hersh that day as he made his debut for new trainer Dermot Magner, and he did not disappoint with a very encouraging second-place finish. He was a bit slow into stride as Joel Rosario let him settle at the back of the pack. He quickly advanced into contention on the turn as the pace started to come back, but he then had to wait for running room while losing some momentum at the quarter pole. I liked the way he regathered himself in the lane to fight off a few others, including today’s rival Illudere, for the place. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him show a bit more speed this time and I think he’s primed to break his maiden today. Among the others, I would also give a look to Todd Pletcher’s second time starter, Dark N Cloudy. He had a ton of trouble in his debut at Gulfstream Park and has reportedly been working well for his second start. However, he is stepping way up in class.
 

RACE 8: SEPARATIONOFPOWERS (#6) 
It will be very interesting to see how the pace plays out in this Test. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, as Classy Act and Mia Mischief, who battled through the early stages of the Victory Ride, figure to go at it up front once again. I do wonder if Mia Mischief backs off somewhat in this situation to stalk the pace, as she did three back in the Purple Mountain. Last time, in the Victory Ride, she was drawn inside of Classy Act and basically had to go out aggressively, but this time, the positions are reversed. Whatever tactics are employed, I think the Victory Ride signaled a changing of the guard, as Classy Act simply ran a better race. However, as talented as that filly is, taking this field all the way will not be easy. I like Separationofpowers best out of the Victory Ride. Her break from the gate was absolutely disastrous, as she stumbled badly and found herself far back, a situation that she had never encountered before. While the pace was very fast, she didn’t exactly get a clear run from the back of the pack, as she had to briefly steady in upper stretch. This time, she figures to be sitting much closer to the pace, stalking the aforementioned two, and I think she’s possibly the most talented filly in this field. At a big price, I also want to include Kelly’s Humor, who should be running on late. I don’t know if she’s quite good enough to beat a field of this quality, but she’s the best deep closer in this race, and she’s actually run quite well in her limited opportunities at this distance. It’s not often that you get to bet Brad Cox at a price. 
 

RACE 9: DIVERSIFY (#6)
This Whitney has drawn an intriguing cast of characters, led by the two New York-breds, Diversify and Mind Your Biscuits. While I have the utmost respect for the 2-time Golden Shaheen winner, I just can’t take a horse stretching out around two turns for the first time in his 23rd career start, especially in a major race such as this. In my mind, this is Diversify’s race to lose. If he runs back to his smashing Suburban performance, the others are probably running for second. Some may try to assert that his monstrous last-out performance came out of nowhere, but that’s simply not the case. Diversify got very good last summer, running one of the best races of his career in the Evan Shipman over this racetrack before taking the prestigious Jockey Club Gold Cup. This race was not originally in the cards, but his connections were forced to change their plans once Diversify worked so well last week, apparently coming out of his Suburban effort in top shape. I like when connections get aggressive like this and I’m not trying to beat him. I’m somewhat skeptical of Backyard Heaven seeing out the 9 furlongs, so the two alternatives that I want to use behind Diversify are Tapwrit and Good Samaritan. Tapwrit has not run particularly well this year, but he was badly floated out into the lane of the Suburban and could never properly gather momentum. Good Samaritan needs pace to run at, but he will appreciate the stretch-out in distance.
 

RACE 10: MOM’S ON STRIKE (#2) 
Santa Monica is a formidable favorite in this spot off her visually impressive score in the Dance Smartly at Woodbine. She unleashed an eyecatching burst of speed once steered into the clear by Jose Ortiz, easily overtaking most of the field before tackling her stablemate Inflexibility in the final eighth of a mile. It briefly appeared as if that one would put up a fight, but Santa Monica asserted her superiority and won with something in reserve. The stretch-out to 12 furlongs should only help her, as she was a Group 3 winner over this distance in Ireland and won her U.S. debut going this trip. There was plenty of rain in the forecast ahead of Saturday’s card, but she has handled courses with give in the ground. I would not recommend taking a strong stance against her, but I do think Mom’s On Strike is the one viable alternative. This mare has been going shorter distances for much of her career, but her lone start at 1 1/2 miles in the Bewitch at Keeneland was very impressive. She easily handled the talented Daddys Lil Darling that day and appeared to relish the added ground. She faced some of the best fillies in the country last time in the New York Stakes, and I thought she ran better than the finish would indicate. Adam Beschizza had her placed wide on the course for the entire journey, and she was just left with way too much to do as horses like Fourstar Crook and Sistercharlie got the jump on her. This time, she draws an inside post position, and a more moderate early tempo should allow her to be placed much closer to the pace.
 

RACE 11: BLACKTYPE (#10)
With Voodoo Song expected to scratch out of the race in favor of a more ambitious target, this Lure becomes a wide-open affair. Ballagh Rocks will probably inherit the favorites role, as his overall body of work is respectable for this bunch. He’s been competitive against Grade 1 company on a number of occasions, and he just got outrun last time in a world-record edition of the Poker, which was much stronger than its Grade 3 label. He’s handled less-than-firm turf courses in the past, so the going should not be a major issue. I’m far more skeptical of Zennor, who makes his first start since winning this race last year. He’s a horse that strongly prefers very firm going, and he’s unlikely to get that this time. I have similar feelings about Ticonderoga, who tends to be his own worst enemy in races. This Chad Brown trainee has no early speed at all, and that could be a problem in a race that Mr. Cub will probably control on the front end now. I’m most interested in Inspector Lynley and Blacktype, and I’ll make the latter my top selection at what should be a more enticing price. Inspector Lynley has yet to win a race this year, but he’s run very well every time. I thought he was a little unlucky to lose to the vastly improved Made You Look two back and then he would have won the Wise Dan at Churchill Downs last time out had he found a clear path at the top of the stretch. I’m using him heavily, but I also think Blacktype has a big shot in this race. Blacktype has never been hindered by softer courses, and he possesses tactical speed, which could be a major asset in this race. Some may make the case that his form has deteriorated as a 7-year-old, and that’s hard to refute. However, he got a needed confidence boost last time and Christophe Clement appears to have found an ideal spot for this likeable gelding.