Heavy overnight rain in Saratoga has wreaked havoc on the Whitney Day card. Races 1, 2, and 4 are off the turf. The De La Rose (race 5) remains on the inner turf, which is rated 'soft.'The other two turf stakes - the Waya and the Lure - have been canceled and rescheduled for next weekend. The great Dave Grening has more on all of that plus the changes to the multi-race wager schedule here.  

The bright side is that Whitney Day has dawned sunny and warm and we still have the Grade 1 Test and the Grade 1 Whitney to come. 

With the first coming off the turf I'll move to Souper Tapit as my top pick. I don't think he ran a particularly good race off the layoff last time, also in a race rained off the turf, but I do think he is a better main track horse. His turf races don't do a lot for me. 

Exulting gets in after being entered MTO and has come back to the races this year in improved form as a new gelding. I like him but am concerned about this distance and think it's worth pointing out that he caught a solid pace to close into last time when winning clear. 

St. Louie Guy dropped to win an off-the-turf race up here as an MTO last Saturday but he also got back to his best form in his first start for an excellent trainer, and he wants to go this far. I'm using. 

Race 2 is also off the turf and goes to 7 furlongs on the main track. At first glance, the surface switch helps Social Paranoia more than anyone else, but to me, he was a horse set to improve on grass. His experience gives him an edge, but he did not run a particularly good race when 2nd last time. 

I liked the effort from Bronxville first time out at a big price in the same race that Social Paranoia just ran in and am more interested in him as he draws into the field.  

Casa Creed was entered for turf seven days after his debut in a much tougher race up here last Saturday but stays in to try dirt again. He didn't do all that much running after getting out-paced in that first one, but he can do better. 

All American Hero was entered to debut on grass but has a strong pedigree for dirt on the dam-side and may not be badly affected by the change to the main track.  

I found it difficult to get past Chad Brown in the De La Rose and gave slight preference to Uni over Precieuse. I suppose the course condition helps the latter, who pulled off an upset over soft ground in a major Group 1 for 3yo fillies last year in France.  

Race 6 is an excellent MSW for older horses set for seven furlongs on the dirt and there are no scratches. 

I liked the 7th race at Belmont on July 6th overall and thought Illudere ran well there while chasing a fast pace from a wide position in a race that went to closers at the end. Hersh also ran well in that race and can improve, but he was closing into that good setup. 

Chad's pair of Alkhaatam and Business Cycle both make plenty of sense, but they are both off the layoff and the former may be looking for more distance down the line. 

Dark N Cloudy earned a Beyer of just 61 in his Gulfstream debut but he encountered plenty of early trouble in that race before racing greenly in the stretch and is eligible improve quickly. 

Race 7 is for 2yo maidens and it looks loaded. He may be bumping into a hot firster in this race, but I'm taking Mucho making his second career start for Bill Mott. He debuted in a race that came back slow but it was a short field, was run at an easy pace, and Mucho was bumped at the start before being rated early. He put in a run through the stretch with no chance to catch but I thought he did well to go clear in 2nd. 

My idea in the Test is to play against the fillies exiting the Victory Ride. Realizing that she has much to prove in this spot, I'll take Minit to Stardom. She is going to find this spot much tougher, but she has been impressive while winning her first three starts and earned a figure in her 3yo debut which suggests that she may be this good. 

The Whitney will close out the card and it has drawn a very interesting field. It may not be reasonable to expect Diversify to run back to his tour de force in the Suburban last time, but he is the speed of this race and it's not like the Suburban is the only good race he's ever run. To me, he is the clear horse to beat and I'm not against him. 

There is nothing to knock about Mind Your Biscuits, who is a very good horse and keeps exceeding expectations, but betting him at a short price as he stretches out to this distance for the first time is not a risk I'm willing to take. 

I suspect that Backyard Heaven will run better today than he did last time. The question is: how good is he even without taking the Stephen Foster as face value? He has much to prove in this race and is likely in the toughest position of anyone as the horse likely to have to race Diversify early. To me, none of his races as of yet make him good enough and he will have to prove it to me.