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Thumb_brad-free Brad Free , Del Mar , 08/15/2018 , Race 1 - DRF Live Posted : Aug 15, 2018, 10:12 AM

Del Mar Wednesday: longshot contenders

Plenty of price potential Wednesday at Del Mar. Preview …

Race 1 – Class dropper Savagery (8) should set the pace in this maiden-62.5k, though pacesetters are 0-for-10 in juvenile races at five and a half since opening week. Two Fifty Coup (8) and Samurai Jack (5) worked well since raced, while longshot firster Swamp Souffle (3) looks interesting. The last debut winner trained by George Papaprodromou (Gogoula, December 2016) worked a half-mile from the gate four days before. Swamp Souffle worked a bullet :35.80 from the gate four days ago. Bombs away at 20-1?

Race 2 – Speed is good at six furlongs, 9 of the last 20 won by the pacesetter. It is not a bias, $9.20 is the highest payoff of the nine front-running winners. Lambo Luxx (7) is favored off a solid second in an $8k claiming sprint; winner Bow and Arrow returned to finish second for $16k. An upset candidate at 8-1 is Rocket Fuel (4), whose blinkers-on gate work Aug. 8 suggests he could show speed. This field lacks an obvious pacesetter.

Race 3 – The last seven favorites trained by Ron Ellis: five wins, two seconds. Ellis starts legit favorite Girl Downstairs (9) in this $25k claiming turf route; she worked well for her first start in two months. Horse-for-course Salsita (7) seeks her sixth Del Mar win.  A pair of upset candidates at 20-1 are Hip Ninety Three (2) and Night Time Inc (6). Hip Ninety Three has a comeback under her belt and eight career wins; Night Time Inc adds blinkers and drops to claiming for trainer Marty Jones and jockey Santiago Gonzalez. It was one year ago at Del Mar (Aug. 17, 2017), Jones and Gonzalez popped with Ferguson at $70.

Race 5 – Yes, front-runner Fahan Mura (1) might lead gate to wire in this mile and three-eighths turf marathon. But since Del Mar replaced its turf course in 2014, only 2 of 23 summer turf races at a mile and three-eighths were won by the pacesetter. Queen Blossom (6), the favorite, is the most probable winner on the card.

Race 7 – All five Bob Baffert-trained winners this summer were 2-year-old first-time starters (Mother Mother, Chasing Yesterday, Roadster, Der Lu, The Aurelia Factor). Baffert starts comebacker Just a Smidge (4) in this allowance turf sprint. The best race of her career was her first, so she should fire as the 7-2 program favorite. Meanwhile, Beau Square (7) is proven over the course and her closing style suits the pace scenario. Lots of speed could set it up for her closing rally. And, she is listed at 5-1.

Race 8 – “Take my hand girl, we’ll make it I swear …” Livin On Prayer (3), runner-up twice, is the one to beat in this maiden-20 sprint. Warning: maiden-20 sprints for males this summer produced a host of longshot winners ($40.60, $39.80, $19.80, $15, $13.80, $8.60), while favorites are 0-for-6. So tough, it's tough.

First post Wednesday, 2 p.m.

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