This is a weird race, because it has come up unusually weak for a maiden special weight on a weekend card at Saratoga. I suppose it’s possible that first time starter Asdaaf (1) is a future star, as he is a half-brother to the late, brilliant sprinter Takaful. However, Kiaran McLaughlin does not have very strong numbers with 3-year-olds making their career debuts in dirt sprints (8 for 70, 11 percent, $0.88 ROI over the past 5 years). I’m using him, but I don’t want to pick this sort of firster at a short price. Among those that have run, there are not that many attractive options from which to choose. Therefore, I think this is a spot where we can get a little creative, as the winner may not have to run as well as you would typically expect in a race at this level.

I’m intrigued by second-time starter RAPHAEL (5). The field that he faced in his debut in comparison to today’s lineup is like night and day. All three of the horses that hit the board in that August 4 maiden event – Hersh, Business Cycle, and Alkhaatam – could be future stakes performers. Furthermore, the rail appeared to be dead before the rain arrived on that Whitney day card. The race that Raphael exits was a great example of the bias, as every runner that rode the rail came off the bridle quickly and had nothing in the end. Raphael never got off the inside that day and appeared to be a bit green racing inside of horses as he got shuffled out of position on the far turn. Nick Zito rarely has these types ready for their debuts, so Raphael should be fitter for his second start. I like that he showed plenty of early speed in his debut and the cutback to 6 furlongs should suit him.

The other horse to consider is Timber Ghost (7), who has been working very well for his return to the races. He faced decent fields down in Florida and these types sometimes are able to do much better once given time to mature.