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Thumb_beertwitternew Mike Beer , Saratoga , 08/19/2018 - DRF Live Posted : Aug 19, 2018, 12:33 PM

Saratoga Sunday preview

Fast on the main track and 'good' (likely something less than that) on the turf at Saratoga on Sunday.

The featured Summer Colony comes early in race 4. For fillies and mares routing on dirt, it has pulled a field of only five. I prefer Moonlit Garden to ML favorite Awestruck, based mostly on distance. Moonlit Garden has been in the best form of her career recently and has posted both career wins around two turns on dirt. Awestruck has a great post on the inside but has never won beyond a mile. 

Nomorerichblondes is a new face returning from a long layoff but she improved with distance as a young horse and makes her stateside debut for an excellent trainer.

Race 3: Tap Tap Taparoo is 10/1 on the ML and worth a bet at anything near that price.  She did not run well when stretched out off the layoff after getting bumped a couple of times early, but she ran a very good race first time out sprinting on turf as a 2yo and will be a handful in here if showing up with that race. 

Race 6: Fast Getaway got bet hard for his debut on dirt and showed speed in that race, but he never looked strong on the lead and gave way readily. He looked like a different horse when switched to turf for his second start when rating and traveling strongly into position, before coming with a good finish to close that field down. Linda Rice is 10 for her last 16 (63%) with last-out winners on turf at Saratoga, good for a $6.85 ROI. 

Race 8 is an excellent allowance for dirt sprinters. I'm giving Wonderful Light one more chance, but he will have to bring his best race against this field. He probably should have won last time but I didn't care for the ride he received in that race when strongly rating the break and pulling back off the pace early, before trying to rally up the inside in the stretch. He is fast enough to go forward from the start and his best race will make him tough in here.

Race 10: I'm trying Over Rider in the finale, cutting back off the claim for his third start back from a layoff. He ran well in his only two starts for a tag as a 2yo, and he doesn't have to improve significantly from those races to contend here. 

 

 

 

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