The most reliable runner in this race is Point to Remember (5), who is supposed to be a significant favorite based on his July 22 effort going this distance. Some may argue that he hung in deep stretch of that race, but I just think he was defeated by a horse, Wooderson, who had everything his own way up front and is not without some talent. The top two came home the last three furlongs in 36 2/5 seconds, which is pretty fast for that distance. The horse I don’t want out of that race is Domain (6), who was right up on that very slow pace and had no excuse not to go on with the leaders in the last quarter-mile.

I’m definitely using Point to Remember, but I think he might have run into another dangerous Todd Pletcher runner in BIG MUDDY (2). On paper, this horse’s debut looks unspectacular, as he earned by the far the slowest last-out speed figure in the field and never got within 10 lengths of the leader. However, the replay tells a different story. He lost contact with the field in the early going but kicked things into high gear for the final quarter-mile. The early pace of that race was fast, but speed was holding well on July 26, which somewhat mitigates the pace scenario. While some others were closing in that maiden race, none was doing so with the same vigor as Big Muddy. This colt flew across the wire and quickly galloped out ahead of even the winner by the time they hit the clubhouse turn. I’m not too concerned about the stretch-out in distance given his pedigree to handle it. Furthermore, Pletcher has a frighteningly strong record in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 11 for 20 (55 percent, $5.64 ROI) in nine-furlong dirt maiden races at Saratoga.