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Thumb_beertwitternew Mike Beer , Belmont Park , 09/19/2018 - DRF Live Posted : Sep 19, 2018, 12:28 PM

Belmont Wednesday preview

Off the turf for the Wednesday card at Belmont, which features a three day Pick 6 carryover of $326k. 

The Pick 6 begins with race 4 at approximately 3:09 ET. Three of the six races in the sequence were scheduled for turf and will now be run on the main track. 

My early take on the Pick 6 was posted here. The thoughts on the scheduled dirt races remain the same with no significant scratches, but let's take another look at the turf races. 

Race 4: Scratch #1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 - #1a Myhartblongstodady, the ML favorite on turf, remains in for Chad Brown. She is likely to still take her share of money, and I liked her on the grass, but she is no longer the horse to beat on the main track, though I will use her defensively. The horse to beat becomes #8 Puffery. She's no star but she has the best main track form in the field and looks loose on the lead. She will also appreciate getting this shorter distance and getting back around one-turn in this spot.  To me she's the clear horse to beat now and is the only 'A' in the pick six. #6 Unbridledadventure also moves up as the lone MTO in the field. She is a four-time winner on dirt, though three of the four wins have come for claiming tags. She won a starter allowance race two starts back at Saratoga, also while entered MTO. 

Race 6: Scratch #s 2, 4, 8. On turf, I wanted to bet #5 Thunder's Honor. I still like him on dirt, as he had run some nice races on this surface early in his career, but a couple of his rivals become much more dangerous in this race on the main track. #1 Morning Breez was entered to take a shot on the grass but one has to believe that his connections are not unhappy that this race will be run on dirt. He's not that good, but he has speed and dirt form and moves up with the surface switch. #6 Killybegs Captain gets in as an MTO and has figures to suggest that he will be tough in here. He's another who is really not that good, and it's worth pointing out that both of his wins so far have come over wet, sealed tracks - which he won't be getting today - but it's all about who you're running against and his dirt form certainly suggests that he has to be used in the Pick 6, at least defensively. #7 Wicked Macho really prefers a wet track but he also has speed and has run some fast dirt races in the past. Even #3 Bourbon Currency could do better back on dirt for the first time since his first two career starts as a 2yo. He did not run poorly in his career debut then got wired in his second start and went to turf. He's on my tickets at a better price than most. 

Race 7: Scratch #s 4, 5, 6, 10, 12. This race was much easier to get through on turf as Adonis Creed was a clear horse to beat despite a couple of lingering questions, and #3 Fuel the Bern seemed a safe main backup. On dirt, it becomes a scramble. Adonis Creed is out and Fuel the Bern has no dirt form to fall back on. 

I like the form that #9 Ride on Faith has been in since starting back on dirt this year. His figures have not improved but he has run well in each of his last five starts and is suited by this distance. I will lean to him and #13 Potomac, who has won two in a row vs. weaker and is off the re-claim for Robertino Diodoro. #8 Baseline's dirt form is spread out lately as he has concentrated on turf, but he can handle this surface. I want to use him along with Ride on Faith and Potomac. 

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