Aggregator (2) seems like one that has to attract some support given her near miss in a similar spot two back at Saratoga. She made a sweeping move to the lead past midstretch in that Aug. 13 race and was run down by two horses who closed from behind her in the late stages. While she earned a speed figure that would make her tough in this spot, she did receive a very favorable pace setup and I think that exaggerates her performance.

The horse that I want to bet is ELIZABETH NICOLE (3). I know she looks a little too slow at first glance, but I actually think she’s slightly better than her form suggests. She did catch a speed-favoring surface two back at Saratoga, but she nevertheless ran hard every step of the way and defeated a tougher field than the one she meets here. Last time out, she unfortunately found herself in a race with many other speed types, and Dylan Davis elected to try out rating tactics. It didn’t work, but she actually ran better than it seems in finishing sixth. Gary Contessa has been enjoying a fantastic Belmont meet this fall and Dylan figures to be much more aggressive this time.

THE PLAY

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4