Disco Partner (1) is likely to go off as the favorite once again despite disappointing at short prices in each of his last two starts. You can make excuses for both of those performances. A mile against top competition is just a bit too much for him to handle, and then he clearly didn’t handle the soft turf course in the Troy last time. The inner turf course should be somewhere between “good” and “yielding” on Saturday, and that’s still a minor concern. This horse has done his best work over very firm courses in the past and I’m somewhat concerned that we may not see the best version of him in this spot.

Some give in the ground is less of a concern for his uncoupled stablemate Pure Sensation (5), who seems to run over anything. The biggest question for him is the stretch-out, since he does his best work at 5 furlongs. His last race would appear to indicate that he’s back in top form, so I think he’s dangerous here. However, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, as he is likely to receive early pressure from Pocket Change and Gidu.

I’m taking a shot against this pair with BLIND AMBITION (2). This Todd Pletcher trainee has failed to find the winner’s circle since his impressive win in the Elusive Quality back in the spring. He was no match for a few of today’s rivals in the Jaipur in June, but that race was run over a very firm course. Blind Ambition is one of the few in this race that has proven his affinity for less than firm ground. He was arguably best in the Troy two back when he was the only horse to make a late run after loose on the lead winner Sandy’z Slew. I won’t hold his Kentucky Downs race against him, since that’s a tricky course to navigate. He figures to sit a great trip just in behind the dueling leaders and he’s going to be a much more inviting price than his two main rivals.

THE PLAY

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with 1,5,6,7,8