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Thumb_brad-free Brad Free , Santa Anita , 10/12/2018 , Race 3 - DRF Live Posted : Oct 12, 2018, 11:28 AM

Stronach 5: Santa Anita analysis

This week’s Stronach 5 sequence includes two from Santa Anita – races 3-4 are the second and fifth legs of the low-cost wager (12 percent takeout). The sequence begins with race 7 from Gulfstream Park West at 1:32 PT/4:32 ET. A look at Santa Anita …

Santa Anita, race 3 (6.5 furlongs turf, 3-year-olds and up, $50,000 maiden-claiming)

Stronach 5 races from Santa Anita have been easy. Not this week. A deep field entered this turf sprint on a downhill course that favors speed. Eight of the 10 downhill sprints were won by horses positioned first or second. The speed-friendly profile favors Bahamian (6) and Seahawk Wave (3), the 4-1 co-second choices on the morning line.

Bahamian has tactical speed, gelded since his last start and drops from MSW to maiden-50. Trainer Simon Callaghan won with 9 of his last 15 MSW-to-MCL droppers. Bahamian ran okay his only turf start; he will be forwardly placed. Seahawk Wave also has speed. He finished a creditable third in his debut at five furlongs on turf, and trained well since.

Secondary contenders are program favorite Capall (9) and Kris’ Wild Kat (8). Capall ran well all three starts on the hill in spring.  Although he ran below par both routes in summer; he can improve returning to the hill. Kris’ Wild Kat worked well since his fifth-place comeback. Gelded since, he offers value at 8-1. Trainer Richard Baltas won a similar maiden-50 turf sprint two weeks ago with a filly dropping from MSW. Same pattern.

Summary: Bahamian (6), Seahawk Wave (4) and longshot Kris’ Wild Kat (8) are solid. Program favorite Capall (9) would be a “defensive” inclusion. His attributes are obvious, but this is the ninth start of his career. Probably should include Capall on a back-up ticket, at least. Or, go four deep.

Santa Anita, race 4 (6 furlongs, MSW fillies & mares)

A bettor might survive using only Amuse (9) and See That Kat (8); they are second-time starters that have worked well since the circuit returned to Santa Anita.

Amuse found two turns too far in her fourth-place debut long on turf. Amuse might prefer to sprint. She was produced by Witty, a stakes-winning sprinter that produced stakes-winning sprinter Bombard. Amuse drew outside, has fast works and is the one to beat as the program favorite. Here’s a weird stat – Richard Mandella-trained maiden dirt-sprint favorites are 0-for-15 since March 2017. It’s an aberration. Amuse is the one to beat.

See That Kat is a “must use” at 8-1.  Her debut was forgivable. She broke slowly from an inside post and did not get close. But since then, she has trained super for Richard Baltas. National Turf workout analyst Andy Harrington wrote this about her Oct. 3 gate work: “Big spin rolling home like a good thing in 23.2,46.4, 59.2 galloping big in 112.2 out again in 127.1. Way better than debut; Bejarano up. Grade: B+”

Summary: Amuse (9) and See That Kat (8) might be enough.

Post time for the first leg of the Stronach 5, race 7 at GPW, is 1:32 PT/4:32 ET.

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