I’m hardly against the likely favorite, Hello Don Julio (5). It’s hard to know what to make of his Laurel Turf Cup victory last time since that was not the toughest field and more than a few horses did not take to the yielding going. On the other hand, he at least proved that he can handle give in the ground, and the 12-furlong distance was not a major issue. He’s the most likely winner, but he doesn’t excite me at a short price.

Patterson Cross (2) seems like his primary competition as he gets some class relief dropping out of the Grade 1 Northern Dancer. He lost that race by just more than a length, but he was never a serious threat while just grinding away through the lane. He’s a danger here given his ample stamina and overall class, but I don’t get the sense that he has a strong will to win.

The condition of the Widener turf course following rain earlier in the week could even the playing field. If it is truly yielding or soft, I think JUST HOWARD (8) has a chance to upset this field since he showed that he performs well over truly boggy ground at Laurel last year. He’s never raced beyond 1 3/16 miles, but he has some pedigree to handle more distance as a son of English Channel. Watching his races, he looks like he would be well suited to added ground since he has the speed to race up close to Hello Don Julio early and he usually finds more when under pressure. His solid effort at a price in the Arlington Handicap suggests he may be classy enough to compete against the favorites.

THE PLAY

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 8 with 2,5 with 1,2,3,5,7