Logo-drf
Thumb_aragona__dave_twitter David Aragona , Belmont Park , 10/21/2018 , Race 6 - DRF Live Posted : Oct 21, 2018, 3:59 PM

Sunday's late Pick-4 Play at Belmont Park, starting in Race 6

View and modify this Pick-4 ticket on DRF Bets Ticketmaker >>

 

RACE 6
A:  1,8
B:  6,7
C:  9

Either member of the Michael Dubb entry can win this race, which is likely to result in the pair of them getting bet down to a very short price. I wouldn’t be thrilled with either of these runners as separate betting interests, so why should I support them as a coupled wagering interest? Samara (1) has clearly run a number of races that would beat this field, but her last two turf efforts have been disappointing. She failed to show up first off the claim for Mike Maker back in June. She then made her first start off the claim for the always dangerous Jason Servis last time at Saratoga and she again failed to regain her top form. Now she’s had two months off and is dropping back in for a tag. Jazzy Juder (1A) actually ran extremely well in her return from the layoff back in June, as she launched an ill-advised premature move on the far turn before fading. She ran well within the context of her last race at Saratoga, but that has proven to be a weak field in retrospect. The two most logical alternatives to the entry are probably Bella’s Game (6) and Shanghai Dreams (7). The former finally turns back to a sprint for capable connections after failed attempts to go longer. Shanghai Dreams actually ran quite well in her only turf start and now gets back on that surface for a top claiming barn. I’m using both of them, but the horse that I want to bet is Truly Courageous (8). While there is a fair amount of speed in this field, I agree with the TimeformUS Pace Projector that she is just faster than her rivals in the early stages and can secure a clear lead. That’s something she was not able to do last time when she contested a fast pace over a tiring course on Oct. 6. That race was dominated by closers, and Truly Courageous actually did quite well to hang on for fourth while finishing well ahead of her early pace foes. The Gary Contessa barn has been routinely improving horses at this meet, and she could be yet another runner heading for a breakthrough.

 

RACE 7
A:  9
B:  4,5,6
C:  3

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the leaders, since there is not much early speed in the race. Flatexcel (5) is predicted to be in front early, but he enjoyed a favorable setup last time out when riding a gold rail. Perhaps the claim by Bruce Levine moves him up, but if he couldn’t win last time, I have doubts about his ability to win this race. Carmine’s Honor (4) ran better than Flatexcel on Sep. 19, but he’s had his chances and seems prone to picking up minor awards. I prefer Nolinski (9). The Pace Projector indicates that he’s fast enough to stick with Flatexcel early and he’s dropping into a much easier spot after contesting the pace in a New York-bred allowance last time. At a big price, I would also throw Crea’s Brklyn Law (6) into the mix, since he’s run some competitive speed figures against tougher foes.

 

RACE 8
A:  3,7
B:  1,2,4
C:  6,9

Chad Brown holds a very strong hand in this Athenia, since all three of his entrants have strong chances to win. New Money Honey (3) is probably the horse to beat off her runner-up effort in the Canadian last time. The early pace of that race was pretty honest, and she did well to hang on for second in a race that otherwise fell apart late. She certainly ran better than stablemate Inflexibility, who had every chance to go by her in the stretch and could not make up any serious ground. I also prefer her to Rymska (1), who has been highly regarded throughout her time in the U.S., but badly disappointed in her August return at Saratoga. Looking back on her 3-year-old campaign, while she had been visually impressive in a number of races, the fields that she beat were relatively weak in retrospect. She’s also been hindered by layoffs throughout her career and it’s unclear if she has taken the necessary steps forward to compete against a field of this caliber. I’ll use her defensively, but I’m starting to think she may be overrated. Indian Blessing (4) is another European import that should not be ignored. She actually ran deceptively well in her U.S. debut when closing into a slow pace in the Ballston Spa and she followed that up with another encouraging effort in the First Lady. That race also featured a slow pace that held together up front, and she did well to close from last. The main concern with her is that she usually breaks slowly and another moderate pace could work against her. The horse that I want to bet at what figures to be a square price is Pas de Soucis (7). I know she looks inferior to some of today’s rivals at first glance, but she’s actually been steadily improving for Jorge Abreu. She got too rank in the early stages of her return on May 24 and she came back with a very strong effort to be third in the Perfect Sting after making a wide, premature move on the far turn. I won’t hold her De La Rose against her, since Uni and Precieuse are just superior fillies. Then last time she never was given a fair chance in the Ladies Turf Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Flavien Prat just always seemed to have her in the wrong spot, as she got shuffled back early and was stuck in traffic in upper stretch. She possesses the tactical speed to sit a good trip and I think she can spring the upset.

 

RACE 9
A:  6
B:  3
C:  4

This is a fairly competitive allowance race in which you can make cases for a number of contenders. That said, I’m not going to get too creative, as I just think that Competitionofideas (6) may be too talented for her rivals. It’s fair to question the legitimacy of her last speed figure, as it came up unusually fast (90 Beyer and 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure). Due to the fact that it’s such an outlier, so may be tempted to attribute that performance to the good turf course. However, I’d be hesitant to dismiss that performance as an aberration. This filly had actually hinted at possessing plenty of ability early in her career when she was a game second in her second start, and then overcame an impossible wide trip to be third at Saratoga. She finally got a favorable setup last time and she capitalized on it. Furthermore, she had shown a propensity to wait on other horses in those early races, and the addition of blinkers seemed to cure her of that hesitation last time. Both the second and third place finishers returned to win out of that race, and have at least validated the speed figures that they were assigned. Competitionofideas figures to sit a good trip stalking some cheap speed in the early going, and I get the sense that she may be too much for this group to handle right now. The other interesting horse to use is Chad Brown’s other filly, Filfila (3), since she did show plenty of potential as a 2-year-old. She was understandably no match for Rushing Fall or Daddy Is a Legend in her debut, but I actually liked her maiden win second time out at Aqueduct. From there, she encountered trouble in her only other start at Gulfstream and was sent to the sidelines. She needs to improve, but that’s certainly a possibility.

Stay Updated with DRF Morning Line

Free Race-of-the-Day video analysis & PPs,DRF Bets Gameplan Play-of-the-Day, all the latest racing news and more.

Download DRF Bets on your smartphone
© Daily Racing Form. All rights reserved.
Morning-line We need just a few pieces of information and you'll begin receiving our newsletter, right to your inbox!

Thank you for registering!

We're glad to have you on board. You'll begin receiving our newsletter upon the next scheduled delivery date. If you do not receive your first newsletter in the next 7 days, please contact our customer service team at cservice@drf.com.