Looming large over the rare and compelling matchup of the last two Kentucky Oaks winners in this 35th running of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff is this simple question: which ABEL TASMAN will show up today at Churchill Downs?

In her last start, Abel Tasman, the 2017 Oaks winner, was just dreadful, finishing off the board at Santa Anita as a 1-10 favorite. In stark contrast to many of her stellar prior races, that head-scratcher is a variable to be deeply considered as she faces the 2018 Oaks winner, MONOMOY GIRL, and nine other fillies and mares in a terrific renewal of the 1 1/8-mile Distaff.

Bob Baffert is insistent that all is well again with Abel Tasman and that he expects a far more representative effort, but bettors who are skeptical will be saying “no thanks” and looking elsewhere. Monomoy Girl, with her nearly flawless 10-race record, surely will be the post-time favorite, and her outside post can quickly be negated (and perhaps even exploited) by the time the field hits the clubhouse turn. Trainer Brad Cox says the standout filly hasn’t missed a beat since her last start in the Cotillion.

With Florent Geroux sure to send Monomoy Girl, will there be another horse to keep her honest out top? Maybe VALE DORI or BLUE PRIZE or maybe even Abel Tasman herself will be asked to keep up, but otherwise, it sure seems like Monomoy Girl will have every opportunity to lead throughout – but if she can’t carry the mail the entire trip, this thing could fall any number of ways.

Blue Prize has a 5-3-2-0 record over the local strip and was thoroughly dominant (despite what the win margin says) in her last start, the Spinster at Keeneland; her best just might be good enough here, period. And WOW CAT seems to be peaking after knocking out a Grade 1 (the Beldame) in her latest for Chad Brown, who had the most eye-catching winner on the Friday BC card with Newspaperofrecord.

Outside considerations include CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS, who has never been better (yet that still might not be good enough here); MIDNIGHT BISOU, who has finished behind Monomoy Girl in all 3 of their meetings (although yes she was awarded the Cotillion via DQ); WONDER GADOT, the Ky. Oaks runner-up and Queen’s Plate winner who will have to rebound off two subpar tries in the Travers and Cotillion; and longshots Vale Dori, LA FORCE, MOPOTISM, and VERVE’S TALE.

The selections here: Monomoy Girl, Blue Prize, Wow Cat, La Force (11-10-9-3).

The Distaff goes as the 9th of 12 races. Besides being a key link in multi-race wagers that start with earlier races, the Distaff leads off the last all-BC pick-3 (R9-11) and the final pick-4 (R9-12) of the card.