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Thumb_hersh Marcus Hersh , Churchill Downs , 11/03/2018 , Race 11 - DRF Live Posted : Nov 3, 2018, 7:03 PM

A few notes on the @breederscup Classic

Accelerate won a Breeders' Cup Classic that, like many American dirt races, was all about deceleration. 

The Classic's first quarter-mile went in 22.68 seconds. The last quarter went in 26.03. Yeah, it looked like Gunnevera was finishing fast, but our eyes tell us lies. Gunnevera was finishing decently as the horses in front of him went slower and slower. 

After the 22.68 and before the 26.03 were quarters of 23.79, 24.15, and 24.29. Final time on a track that produced some lively clockings was 2:02.93. Given the final times earlier on the card in the Sprint and the Mile, it's really hard to see that raw time producing a champion-level speed figure. Those that account for ground loss will rate him higher since he was wide the whole trip from post 14. 

The pace took it's toll: The horses that were 14th, 13th, 12th, and 11th the first time under the wire finished sixth, eighth, fourth, and second. Credit to Accelerate, who wasn't far off the pace and, despite wavering late, was able to stand up to the early stress and hold firm. Thunder Snow, who was closer to the lead early than Accelerate, also ran creditably to finish third, thanks in great part to a really nice trip engineered by jockey Christophe Soumillon. Mendelssohn (5th) wasn't great but, as in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last out, he showed an ability not to totally wilt off a testing tempo - though it remains an open question while Mendelssohn has to be sent hard to the lead in his races. 

Gunnevera got second here as the classic pick-up-the-pieces type. Yoshida, who wound up fourth, had his moment between the five-sixteenths and quarter poles, where it briefly looked like he was going best. He wasn't. 

West Coast stalked - and never pounced. If he improved off his Awesome Again comeback run it wasn't much, and he is not the same horse as a year ago. 

Discreet Lover got the same favorable setup as in his Jockey Club Gold Cup shock win but this time did nothing with it, finishing eighth. Axelrod also loomed to the quarter pole, then didn't stay at all. Pavel was 11th, never getting involved, while Mind Your Biscuits delivered the race's second-most disappointing performance, never lifting his hooves, finishing 11th. Worse than him was Catholic Boy, who was favorably position near the back early, set to be part of the positive race flow, but never got into any flow, checking in 13th. 

Just in front of him was the race's other 3-year-old Classic starter not based overseas, McKinzie, who instead of moving forward off his Pennsylvania Derby win, regressed badly. Mike Smith either steered him toward the rail or McKinzie himself failed to keep a straight line, but in any case he came over sharply in the opening strides. There could easily have been serious trouble for the horses inside him, but the dramatic move produced less of an effect than might have been expected. Gunnevera took the worst of things but was going to be back anyway.

Last came Roaring Lion. He was surprisingly close to the early pace but was working hard just to keep up. Jockey Oisin Murphy went to the crop - with more than five furlong still to race. The pair was a distant last.

Accelerate? This performance was a microcosm of his season. He won the biggest race in North America outside the Kentucky Derby but did so in less than memorable style. And for a horse who swept the four older-horse dirt-route Grade 1 races in California this year, adding a win in the Grade 2 San Antonio and a runner-up finish to the excellent City of Light in the Oaklawn Handicap, Accelerate's campaign doesn't seem to be properly valued. 

Maybe he's a good, solid, Grade 1 horse who came around at the right time and held his form over an entire season. But hey - even just that, capped by a Classic, is pretty damn good.

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