The autumn meet at Del Mar begins Friday, first post 12:30. Preview …
Race 1 – Horse-for-course My Farmer (3) is solid this $20k claiming mile. The in-form gelding is 2-for-3 at Del Mar, has a versatile running style and should get a good trip positioned just off the speed first start off the claim by Jerry Hollendorfer.
(Hollendorfer side note: three of his top 2-year-olds return to California in coming weeks after being freshened. Grade 2 winner Instagrand is due back Nov. 16; Grade 1-placed Brill and Rowayton return Dec. 1. Hollendorfer ’s deep 2-year-old roster also includes Gunmetal Gray, Dueling, Galilean, It’sjustanillusion and Flying Scotsman.)
Race 2 – Eskenforadrink (1) should win this maiden-20 sprint. The knock is she finished second as the odds-on favorite both recent starts. Maybe she is not a slam dunk. Peter Miller-trained maiden-claiming favorites tend to be overbet. Upset candidate Irish Lassie (5) ran well in summer at Del Mar and is listed at 8-1.
Race 3 – The first turf race is a Cal-bred N1X mile; in-form Super Patriot (2) is preferred over comebacker Marjorie E (8). However, now that front-runner Tapitha Bonita (3) is back on preferred footing (turf), she could slip into the exacta. Tapitha Bonita, listed at 6-1, is better than her recent start in an off-turf race.
Race 4 – Bob Baffert is 16-for-22 this year with 2yo first-time starters, but Trojan Magic (1) is the first this season to debut for a tag, $100,000 claiming. Tough to bet against Baffert, but this handicapper took special-weight dropper Easy Shot (3).
Race 5 – Would like to lock in 7-2 program odds for Take a Leap (6), who won comfortably last out in a maiden special-weight. She is eligible to this starter allowance turf mile because she ran for a tag way back in June. Expect that Take a Leap’s odds will drop. Also expect her to win.
Race 6 – Big Barrel (7) should take this sprint for older Cal-bred maidens if he reproduces his recent runner-up finish at Santa Anita. Trainer Leonard Powell has won with 8 of his last 10 dirt-sprint favorites.
Race 7 – Psycho Sister and Pantsonfire scratched from this $75k turf stakes for fillies and mares. Sweet Charity (10), Quebec (6) and Way to Versailles (7) are this handicapper’s choices, with minimal conviction. The scratch of front-runner Psycho Sister benefits front-runner Escape Clause (8), who has won eight straight at ASD, CBY, NP and CTD. National Turf workout analyst Andy Harrington is raving over the workouts of shipper Excellent Sunset (4).
Race 8 – Want to bet against a Mike McCarthy-trained favorite in a maiden-claiming race? Good luck with that. McCarthy is 9-for-17 (flat-bet profit) with maiden-claiming favorites the past three years, a stat likely to improve if last-out runner-up Norwegian (5) wins this maiden-32 sprint as expected.
First post Friday, 12:30.