Selections and analysis
 

Race 4:   5 - 8 - 7 - 6

Alisio (8) ran well enough to win many races at this level when she chased home debut winner Break Curfew in a fast maiden race in October at Belmont. She took a bit of money that day and ran to that support, finishing nearly 10 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. The winner of that race returned to disppoint next time out at Churchill Downs, but did so going a route distance. I like the gradual stretch-out to 7 furlongs for Alisio and I think she'll be difficult to beat if she merely repeats her debut. That said, there are some intriguing first time starters in this line-up and the one that I want to support is PAYNTERBYNUMBERS (5). George Weaver has excellent numbers with juvenile first time starters. Acccording to DRF Formulator, over the past 5 years he is 11 for 45 (24%, $5.14 ROI) with 2-year-olds making their debuts in dirt sprints at NYRA. This filly worked a nice furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at the Barretts sale in April, and she appears to have trained forwardly at Belmont since then. It's a good sign to see John Velazquez take the mount. I would also include Passion Flower (6), who is impeccably bred as a half-sister to $3 million earner Stopchargingmaria. Introspection (7) is also mildly interesting as she turns back in distance after trying routes in two straight starts.
 

Race 5:   1 - 7 - 6 - 3

This race coming off the turf makes the only MTO entrant, SINGAPORE TRADER (1), an obvious single for just about everyone. His prior dirt races are just vastly superior to those of all of his rivals. Furthermore, he appears to be back in top form for Todd Pletcher after coming alive when switched back to dirt at Saratoga. He actually had some minor excuses for that poor performance in October, and I thought he bounced back very nicely last time, albeit with a perfect trip. If he shows up, he's going to win. Mango M (7) ran some decent dirt races as a 2-year-old, but I find that surface switches like this rarely work later in a horse's career.
 

Race 6:   2 - 3 - 7 - 6

I'm not trying to beat the likely favorite TRUE GOLD (2), who seems like a horse that many people will lean on in multi-race sequences. Either of his first two starts sprinting would be good enough to beat most New York-bred fields. The winner of his debut, Poppy's Destiny, returned to finish a good second in the Bertram F. Bongard next time out, and he finished between a pair of multiple winners in his stakes debut at Finger Lakes. I can excuse his poor effort going a mile last time, espcially considering his wide trip. Among those with experience, his main rival appears to be Hot Diggity (7). While this horse took a step forward in his second start, the speed figures that were assigned to that Oct. 26 race seem a bit high for all runners involved. I don't think he's yet proven that he's in the same league as True Gold, assuming that one shows up. The other horses that I would consider are all first time starters. I'm somewhat interested in Coolboy (3), who shows a few swift workouts as he makes his debut for Tony Dutrow. Fleet Warrior (6) also has a right to be a fast horse given his pedigree, and this barn has done well in recent weeks.
 

Race 7:   5 - 4 - 3 - 1

Face It (4) is going to be the favorite here after trouncing a field of maidens by 10 lengths last time out in her first route attempt. The added ground clearly helped her, and she appears to be figuring the game out, as she showed vastly improved early speed in that win last time. On the other hand, she beat an absolute pitiful field. The margin of victory was totally a product of the competition, since the runner-up returned to run horribly as an odds-on favorite in a slow race on Thursday. Face It probably needs to improve her speed figures to win this race, and I never like picking favorites in that situation. The problem with this field is that all of the alternatives have flaws. Out of Trouble and Best Performance (1) are both better on turf, and the latter may want less ground. Harkness (3) has some competitive speed figures in her past performances, but I’m not convinced that she wants to go this far and she usually settles for minor awards. Therefore, I’m left with AIKENETTA (5) as my top selection. I realize that she appears to be a bit cheaper than some of her rivals, but I cannot deny that her two races for Rudy Rodriguez are far and away the best efforts of her career. She made a decisive move off the far turn to win going away on Sept. 14, running a figure that makes her just as fast as Face It. Then last time, she actually ran much better than it appears on the turf behind the talented Competitionofideas. That race was dominated by closers and Aikenetta did well to hold on for second after carving out a legitimate pace. The low-percentage rider should ensure a generous price on this improving filly.
 

Race 8:    5 - 10 - 2 - 1

In handicapping this race, you first have to decide what you want to do with the runners exiting the second race on Nov. 2. Dirty (2) was a heavy favorite that day and he badly disappointed, crossing the wire last of the 7 runners. Some may criticize the ride, but I thought Gutierrez got him into position at the quarter pole and he just had nothing in the lane. His races from earlier in the summer would obviously make him very tough, but I don’t trust him to get back to that form. I prefer Pagliacci, who finished ahead of him last time with legitimate trouble. This horse was steadied while in tight quarters rounding the far turn and did well to get up for third in the stretch. Pagliacci (10) has been in solid form ever since Bill Mott turned him back to sprinting, and he’s overdue for a win in one of these races. I’m using him prominently, but I don’t think you’re going to get much value on him. There are many New York-breds who are attempting to step up into open company given how few turf opportunities are left in the season, but I think they’re all in a bit tough. Instead, I want to take a shot with FINAL FRONTIER (5), who turns back in distance. This colt was actually successful going 7 furlongs on dirt in his second start, so he may possess the speed to win going shorter on the turf. He ran very well to cross the line in front before justifiably getting disqualified in his turf debut, and then he couldn’t quite last the 1 1/16 miles over yielding ground at Belmont. This Godolphin homebred is a very close relative to Better Lucky – also a daughter of Ghostzapper –on his dam’s side, and she was best at distances ranging from sprints to a mile. I’m generally against turf turnbacks, but this feels like one that could work out, and it’s not as if this colt needs the lead to win.
 

Race 9:    3 - 1 - 11 - 10

La Cat Warrior (11) is the horse to beat off his runner-up effort at the $40,000 level in September, but I could never trust this gelding at a short price. Since returning from a layoff this year, he’s been a vet scratch on four occasions – twice as many times as he’s actually raced. This drop to the bottom level is not a good sign, given his superior form. All Clear (10) is also difficult to endorse off the claim by low-percentage connections, especially since he’s exiting the barn of Danny Gargan. At a bigger price, I would consider Hopper Dropper (1). He can more forward in his second start off the layoff, though he's had many chances to win. In some ways, the runner that I trust the most is FORMAL START (3). At least he consistently runs fast enough to win races at this level, and he’s done so against superior competition. In fact, the only time that he was dropped in for a tag during the past year, he ran the best race of his life to just lose by a neck at Saratoga. That was undoubtedly a tougher spot than this one, and I applaud his connections for finally placing him at a realistic level. The only concern is that his running style will not make things easy for Manny Franco, since he may have to pass them all. That said, there are far more reasons to take an optimistic view of this horse than not. Runners for low-profile barns such as this often get overlooked when they finally drop in class. In my opinion, this horse should be a clear favorite, and that's unlikely to happen. That's the definition of value.