This is yet another highly competitive turf race that helps break up the stakes action on this card. It’s hard to discern who will be favored, or even which horses are the ones to fear, since you can make cases for almost every member of this field. I suppose Dr. Shane (14) is one of the most reliable runners in this race, since he always shows up with an honest effort and has run fast enough to put him on the cusp of winning at this level. He clearly likes this Aqueduct turf course, and I think he’s a real danger here if he merely repeats his last race. He was chasing a fast pace that fell apart and hung in well to be fourth.

I’m using him, but my top pick is another runner out of that Nov. 9 race. AXTELL (9) didn’t get the right trip that day, as he found himself too far back early and went very wide around the turn as his rider almost appeared to give up prematurely. Furthermore, he’s never been a horse that has cared for any give in a turf course, as all of his competitive efforts have come over firm going. Based on the one turf sprint we saw on Friday, the outer turf course is closer to firm than good, so it should be to Axtell’s liking. When this runner is at his best, he’s as talented as any member of this field, and he always gets overlooked due to the low-profile connections. He’s my top pick, but there are many others to consider.

I wouldn’t totally dismiss Almithmaar (3), though this switch back to turf late in the season seems a bit desperate. I also think Adonis Creed (6) is one of the more talented members of this field, but I have serious concerns about him handling the distance. Fear (10) would be more appealing if he had run better in his first start off the claim, but he’s not impossible either.

THE PLAY

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,6,8,10,14