Pegasus Turf Invitational: 3 – 7 – 9 – 4
CHANNEL MAKER (3) is my top selection as he cuts back in distance following a poor performance in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Turf. I’m not going to hold that effort against him given the fast pace of that race. Prior to that he had been in career form for Bill Mott ever since they made adjustments to his running style. I don’t mind the turnback to 1 3/16 miles and he should have no trouble handling a turf course with some give to it.
Bricks and Mortar (7) won his return race in style and should step forward in his second start off the layoff. He showed a great deal of ability as a 3-year-old but must now stretch out and handle a wet turf course for the first time.
Catapult (9) validated his improved California form with a strong runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Mile after making a wide move into contention on the far turn. There’s an argument to be made that he was best that day, but now he must ship to a new venue and repeat that effort over a longer distance.
Aerolithe (4) is the wild card in this field. While the mile division in Japan last season was not as strong as some prior years, I think she still deserves respect in this spot. A repeat of her Manichi Okan victory over Mile Championship winner Stelvio and eventual Japan Cup runner-up Kiseki would make her a major player in here.
Pegasus World Cup: 5 – 3 – 1 – 8
ACCELERATE (5) is simply the horse to beat and I’m not trying to get too creative by taking a strong stand against the favorites in this race. It's true that he tailed off in his final two starts of 2018, but even those efforts give him a big chance in this spot. He appears to be training forwardly since the Breeders’ Cup, and he should work out a good trip from mid-pack. Unlike his main rival, he has already proven that he handles a wet track and I believe he’s going to end his career in the same fashion as the last two Breeders’ Cup Classic champions.
City of Light (3) will try to take this field as far as he can on the front end. While he rallied from off the pace past Accelerate when he defeated him in the Oaklawn Handicap, City of Light's inside draw will likely necessitate more aggressive tactics this time. I believe he is Accelerate’s equal in terms of raw talent, but I still get the sense that he’s slightly better over shorter distances. Even in that thrilling match-up at Oaklawn, he just barely held off a resurgent Accelerate after having seemingly put away that rival past midstretch.
Bravazo (1) rarely wins but he always seems to run his race. He’s been steadily improving with each start since the Triple Crown events, and this 9-furlong distance is perfect for him. Don’t overlook how well he ran over sloppy surfaces in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
Gunnevera (8) got a strong pace to close into when he rallied for second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I’m not sure if there’s quite as much early speed signed on for this race, but he clearly loves Gulfstream Park and should be running on late for a minor award at the very least.