Sunny Ridge (7) is clearly the horse to beat in this Jazil. He completed his 2018 campaign in excellent form, placing in both the Kelso and Cigar Mile. His runner-up finish in the Kelso may have been his finest effort of the entire year, as he had to overcome a rail bias while rallying into a moderate pace. It’s unclear if the rail was still a disadvantage on Cigar Mile day by the time the feature was run, but Sunny Ridge nevertheless put in a solid late move to get up for third behind the in-form Patternrecognition. While that was a Grade 1 race, it’s worth noting that a few of the key players failed to show up. In other words, I don’t think this drop in class is quite as drastic as it might seem. Sunny Ridge is an honest horse that usually shows up with a solid effort, but I think it’s fair to question whether some of his improvement late last season was due to the renewed focus on one-turn races. He’s always been proficient at a variety of distances, but I do think he’s at his very best going a bit shorter than this 1 1/8 miles distance. He’s the most likely winner and I’m certainly using him prominently, but I’m not sure that I want to bet him as the odds-on favorite.

I’m taking a shot against him with the improving 4-year-old TITLE READY (3). A this point in time, he’s a cut below a horse of Sunny Ridge’s stature, but I like the progression of this runner in recent months. He ran deceptively well at Keeneland two back and then was a game second behind the exciting Plainsman in the Discovery. He stepped up to face older horses for the first time in late December and I thought he was game to get up for the victory over today’s rival Thebigfundamental. While the Pletcher runner may have run the slightly better race that day, I prefer Title Ready stretching back out around two turns. Furthermore, Steve Asmussen’s New York barn under assistant Toby Sheets has been winning at an eye-opening rate during this Aqueduct meet. Through Friday, the stable has won with 6 of their last 8 starters, and many of those have been improving on their prior form. If Title Ready continues to improve on his recent TimeformUS Speed Figures, I think he has a shot to upset the favorite.

THE PLAY

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,7
Trifecta: 3,7 with 3,7 with 1,5,6