The main difficulty for handicappers analyzing this Broadway is deciding how to assess Linda Rice’s entrants. Both are coming off significant layoffs and ran poorly prior to being sent to the sidelines. They will each generate some support in the wagering based on their prior form, and I’m concerned that one or both will need a start off the layoff. Holiday Disguise (3) is probably the class of the field, but six furlongs has always been a bit short for her. This is the right distance for Startwithsilver (7), but I’m concerned that she’s not going to get the kind of pace setup that she requires.

In some ways, Pauseforthecause (2) is the horse to beat. She has a significant recency edge on the two Rice mares, and she’s been in excellent form. I thought her Iroquois performance was excellent, and I won’t hold her loss behind Kathryn the Wise in the slop against her. If she breaks well, which isn’t a guarantee for this filly, she should work out a good stalking trip. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is the likely speed, FILIBUSTIN (6).

The Pace Projector is not characterizing the dynamics of this race as either fast or slow, but it does indicate that this speedy filly should have the early lead to herself. That figures to make her especially dangerous, since horses that show speed and get the rail have been very tough to beat on today's card. Filibustin actually ran great in the Iroquois two back, setting an honest pace before fading in the last furlong. Her 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance makes her very competitive against this group. She didn’t quite get back to that level in her first start for the Gary Contessa barn last time, but I liked the way she finished up after relaxing on the lead. It hasn’t hurt to have speed in recent days, and I think Filibustin could be sitting on another big effort.

THE PLAY

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,7