At first glance, HOLIDAY STONE (3) looks hopelessly overmatched in the upcoming Canadian Turf at Gulfstream Park. He's been beaten a combined 41.5 lengths in his past four starts and was handled by a few of these common opponents in last month's El Prado. What's the case for this son of Harlan's Holiday?

I believe you can make an argument that each of his past four efforts can be excused:
- KEE 10/24/18: Not a dirt horse
- DMR 11/24/18: Likely found company too tough; there are no Caribou Club/Synchrony types in this race
- GP 1/12/19: First start off the bench, close to hot fractions, faded
- GP 2/9/19: Never got any chance to run, stymied inside while appearing ready to run

Would Holiday Stone have won if he had the opportunity to run last month? I have no idea, but I do think he'd at least have been in with a chance. If you view him the way I do, you're hoping that the four most recent runs have excuses and he'll ultimately run back to his race five starts back: a victory at a mile at Saratoga, earning a 96 Beyer Speed Figure.

SIEM RIEP (1) is likely to go from the inside, and I'd hope Manny Franco parks Holiday Stone just off his flank. If that trip develops, I'll take my chances. Holiday Stone is currently 12-1 with some time before the Canadian Turf goes off.