- A THREAD OF BLUE (1) hasn't done anything wrong as a three-year-old, winning three starts impressively at Gulfstream Park over the winter. The ability to sit off the pace he displayed most recently was a nice addition to his repertoire, and he should be viewed as a major threat this afternoon.

- SOCIAL PARANOIA (2) destroyed a field of maidens at Gulfstream on March 30, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 95 in the process; an interesting comparison is the TimeformUS rating he earned that day, only coming in at 103 (not pace adjusted).

- I've loved AVIE'S FLATTER (8) for some time, and I'm not jumping off now. He's been rock-solid throughout his career, and I see no reason to believe he won't fire a good shot this afternoon.

- If you're like me and like Avie's Flatter, you should probably like HENLEY'S JOY (10), too. Henley's Joy was rolling at the end of the Transylvania at Keeneland most recently, only finishing 1/2 length behind Avi's Flatter.

The only two horses I have on my pick five ticket are Avie's Flatter and Henley's Joy, but I'd be lying if I said I was supremely confident I'd get through this leg - there are a number of horses that can win this afternoon's American Turf.