It's been a chilly go of things for me today at Churchill Downs...but it only takes one if the price is right!

INSTAGRAND (10) has run two credible races as a three-year-old, and he figures to be tough to beat in this afternoon's Pat Day Mile. The turn-back in distance should be to his liking, but even more than that - the return to a one-turn configuration should do wonders for this son of Into Mischief. I'm not way against him in a spot like this, but there's a horse I've been hoping would end up in a race like this, and he's here today.

DUNPH (5) may not be as naturally talented as some of the other more highly regarded runners in the Pat Day Mile, but I think he's been crying out for an opportunity to go shorter, and, more importantly, one turn. His run two starts back in the Tampa Bay Derby wasn't terrible, and I'm drawing a line through his most recent start at Keeneland on the grass. I think the move to one-turn should be to his liking, and he's a giant price; I'll take Dunph to win at odds of 23-1.