The skies have cleared after heavy rain showed up about halfway through the card yesterday, but the damage has been done and races 2, 6, 7 and 10 are off the turf today. There are plenty of scratches in those races so adjust accordingly.
The 3rd (Mellon) and the featured 9th, the Forbidden Apple, remain on grass that is listed "yielding."
The Forbidden Apple remains an ultra-competitive race and I feel like I took the easy way out while making the logical Qurbaan my top pick. He's a really nice horse getting some class relief, but this may be a race to look for a bit of a better price. I guess the main obstacle for me was the fact that the other horses I considered were Hembree (liked him last time at 13:1), March to the Arch (liked him last time at 10:1) and Made You Look (long layoff in a tough spot and perhaps overbet being trained by Chad Brown). We'll see what happens, but there are many chances in there at what should be square prices.
I've lost the horses I was most interested in with races coming off so will try Soul P Say in Race 4, off the claim for Diodoro and turning back while dropping in for $12.5k. That 4th is a very competitive race for the level with a lot going on but I'll take my chances there at around his ML odds.
In the 2yo MSW 5th, there wasn't all that much to go on and I thought it looked like a good spot for the Asmussen firster Lotta Ott. She's by a sire in Tapiture who is off to a good start at stud (5 for his first 15 with first-time starters) and the dam is a winning sister to the multiple graded stakes-winner Spring Venture. Asmussen is 17 for his last 67 with 2yos in MSW dirt sprints at Saratoga (25%, $3.59 ROI).
I like the pedigree for Drop a Hint, so even though Lukas hasn't been effective with horses like this in a while, I'll use her at a price.
In the off-the-turf 6th, I'll be interested to see if Rudy can resurrect Curlin Road off the claim, as that horse has back races to contend and was entered MTO. If he can't, Heavy Roller may be in a good spot dropping back to the level of the claim from the rail.
First post coming up at 1:00 ET with a nine-furlong dirt route for maiden claimers without much form to be confident in. I took Derby Memories going turf to dirt for Gargan second off the layoff. His debut came almost two years ago on dirt, but he set a good pace that day ahead of Bravazo. Good enough for me in this field.
Looking forward to getting back on turf tomorrow.