The horse to beat in this Sanford is Cucina (3). I like what I’ve seen out of this colt in his first couple of races. He didn’t get off to the smoothest start last time and found himself in midpack early. He then got a little rank under Jose Ortiz but did well to advance through traffic and finished up with good energy while running down a well-meant firster. My only concern is that he seemed to really relish the sloppy, sealed track last time, and he was meant to compete over turf that day. It’s unclear if he’s quite as effective over fast going since his debut effort at Gulfstream wouldn’t quite make him good enough.

The main alternatives appear to be Raging Whiskey (2) and By Your Side (5). The former was facing a tough field in his debut, as both runners who finished ahead of him returned to win stakes in their next starts. He was more professional last time, and I think he’s quite dangerous off the trainer switch to Doug O’Neill. By Your Side was not nearly as flashy in his maiden victory, but he did well to grind out the win.

I’m using all of them, but I want to take a shot with TOMATO BILL (4) at a slightly better price. This horse only earned a 77 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his debut, but I liked the way he accomplished it. He broke sharply and made the front but had to fend off multiple challenges as four horses lined up across the track for the run around the far turn. He did well to cut the corner at the top of the lane and drew off with authority as the others who contested the pace faded. The fourth-place finisher from that heat returned to win his next start while improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 26 points, so the race may have been stronger than it appears. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front early, and I don’t see a ton of other speed in this race.