A track bias doesn't have to be black and white. A surface can favor speed without the inside speed horse winning every race. Was there an overwhelming track bias at play on the Friday card at Keeneland? No, but with the benefit of having the whole card behind us, I think you could say it was beneficial - at least slightly over and above the degree to which that's the case in all of American dirt races -- to have a forward position.
Obviously, Nashville leading all the way from the rail in race 1 today didn't tell us much, since Nashville was a 1-9 shot. What it did tell us was that the surface, even unbiased, is very fast, faster even than yesterday's fast track. Not only did Nashville set a six-furlong track record of 1:07.89 (which he did under wraps, seemingly with little exertion), but Wild Wes, the second-place finisher, ran 1:08.58. Wild Wes, just to situate his performance level, came into this with a career-best 87 Beyer Speed Figure. So, yeah, the surface is supercharged.
Ugly, unfortunate breakdown in race 2, which disrupted much of what happened behind the leader, Edgemont Road, who set a very fast pace and stopped the final furlong. Victorious Sleepy Eyes Todd came up the inside to win, and all the best-finishing horses were closer to the rail, but, again, this race turned chaotic because of the upper-stretch spill. And in race 3, it was Merneith, of all horses, coming from well off the pace and four or five paths wide to push past outside-stalking Motivated Seller and on to victory as the inside speed faltered. No idea what was up with favored Miss T Too, who couldn't even show her usual speed. Wicked Whisper also misfired here. Merneith on paper was a pop and stop type who appeared to have little path to victory in a pace-filled field, but a change in tactics worked, and perhaps that bodes well for trainer Bob Baffert's prospects today.
So, coming into the BC Filly and Mare Sprint and starting the Breeders' Cup sequence, the main track seems fast but fair. And Gamine, the first Baffert-trained BC runner, is being bet even more heavily than I imagined, sitting at 6-5 with 22 minutes to post as DRF's "Projected Odds" tool has her pegged for 4-5 when the betting closes, which means that if you're a Serengeti Empress supporter, you probably are getting the price you wanted.