FREE DROP BILLY (4) put in an eye-catching middle move in his career debut, and even though there appears to be a ton of early speed signed on, the Saratoga main track has been favoring horses that are forwardly placed. If he's to win, he'll need to buck the trend.

Another that could be compromised by the main track is the horse I'm most interested in - BAL HARBOUR (2). Bal Harbour is painfully slow from a TimeformUS standpoint (75,77 in each of his starts), but the traffic he encountered when breaking his maiden most recently should have eliminated him completely, especially at 4.5 furlongs; instead, he showed athleticism and was able to overcome the trip. Although he's yet to try a distance longer than 4.5 furlongs, I believe he should be able to handle the 6 furlong trip today. He's currently 7-1 with 8 minutes to post.