The 2017 summer meet ends Monday. Wednesday preview …
Race 1 – Two-year-old fillies $70- $80k maiden-claiming; first-timer Pasadena Princess (5) is the one to beat. She worked three times in company with Debutante-bound Gas Station Sushi last month. But she also worked in company with Oh Man on Aug. 22; he is a four-start maiden whose career-best Beyer is 50. Workout notes are based on original reporting by workout analysts Andy Harrington, Donald Harris and Toby Turrell.
Although trainer Richard Baltas and jockey Rafael Bejarano are among the circuit’s most productive combination, Pasadena Princess faces a difficult trainer-jockey stat. The past five years, Baltas and Bejarano are 0-for-24 with first-time starters. Yikes.
Race 2 – Favorites have won just 22 percent of turf routes this summer (17 for 79), yet program favorite Corps de Ballet (4) is the most probable winner on the card in this allowance turf mile. Her last-out runner-up finish in a restricted stake is good enough.
Race 3 – Wicked Old Fashion (6) figures to win this maiden-20 sprint if she reproduces her runner-up debut. But she is no slam dunk due to a lack of speed. Argumentative (6) and Team Astrology (7) are quicker. Here’s a trainer stat in support of Argumentative: John Sadler won with 4 of his last 5 first-off-the-claim maidens; 11-for-35 the past five years with a $4.35 return on investment (per $2 win bet).
Race 5 – Maiden fillies and mares sprint five furlongs on turf; first-time starters Candy Bark (5) and Kentan Road (1) trained like they will fire first time out. Candy Bark is 7-2 program favorite; Kentan Road is 5-1.
Race 6 – Show It N Moe it (4) could start lower than her 5-2 program odds. Based on her last-out stakes win, she will be tough to beat in this $100k stakes for Cal-bred 2yo fillies. Here’s a bizarre stat – Show It N Moe it’s trainer Gary Sherlock is 0-for-8 with Del Mar favorites the past five years. It’s an aberration, probably.
Race 7 – Only five of 32 turf miles this summer were won by the pacesetter. Only four of 32 turf miles this summer were won by the favorite. Those are the statistical challenges that face front-running program favorite West Coast Bias (3) in this turf mile.
First post Wednesday is 2 p.m.