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Thumb_brad-free Brad Free , Del Mar , 08/23/2018 , Race 1 - DRF Live Posted : Aug 23, 2018, 12:55 PM

Del Mar Thursday preview

Handicapping considerations, Thursday at Del Mar …

Race 1 – Program favorite Twisted Rosie (3) is not the only “off slow” starter in this claiming sprint. Crown Kitten (4) also broke slowly. She finished third, two lengths behind runner-up Twisted Rosie. Bettors that like the favorite must also respect 6-1 Crown Kitten. But the truth is, neither come-from-behind filly looks reliable. Miss Unusual (7) and Bonneville Flats (1) both have speed, either could win on the lead.

Race 2 – Lucky Student (3) gate to wire? Back in 13 days, up two levels after an $8k claiming romp, Lucky Student could be gone. Trainer Mike Pender won with five of his last seven favorites. Flip side: past five years, Pender is 0-for-8 with Del Mar favorites.

Race 3 – Screenshot (1) made the Daily Racing Form “horses to watch” list after her better-than-looked sixth-place debut in a similar MSW turf sprint. She probably wants more ground, but she will finish in a race with speed. Front-runners Storming Lady (7) and Come On Kat (8) insure a lively pace. Screenshot is 4-1, her 7-2 stablemate is Token Vow (3), ridden for the first time by some fellow named Drayden Van Dyke.

Race 4 – Smokey Pirate (7) should be closer to the pace against these maiden-32s than his Cal-bred MSW eighth-place debut, a race that produced two next-out winners.

Race 5 – Nine of the last 10 turf sprints were won by the first or second betting choice, so it sounds strange this Cal-bred N1X looks wide open. With little conviction, this handicapper took 4-1 blinkers-on Joe Jackson (7), expected to produce more speed than recently. Favorites are 4-for-5 in turf sprints with the rails-at-30; the non-favorite winner paid $6.20. In this race, the favorite is last-out runner-up Ultimate Bango (6).

Race 7 – Beau Recall (6) drops to allowance turf route after 11 straight graded stakes, including a G2 win in April. Beau Recall could win, but Melissa Jane (5) might slip through the cracks at a price. Her recent form is solid, she is listed at 8-1.

Race 8 – Wild Verse (9) drops to maiden-32 for his first start since July 2017. It is a winning pattern employed by trainer Peter Miller. The past five years, he is 6-for-13 with six-month comebackers going MSW to MCL.

Thursday's best longshot: Melissa Jane, race 7.

Post time Thursday, 2 p.m.

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