This is one of the trickiest races on the entire card. My primary opinion here is that I’m not convinced Identity Politics (5) deserves to be a substantial favorite – and he is very likely to be one. He did earn a fast speed figure in his debut at Belmont last time, but I think that race may not have been quite as strong as it seems. Greek Alphabet won it, but he’s not necessarily even best on turf. The horse that was supposed to be the main rival, End of Spirits, underperformed, and a longshot that seemed hopeless on form finished a close fourth. Furthermore, one would assume that Chad Brown would want to stretch out a horse like this. Cutting these types back to 5 1/2 furlongs usually isn’t a sign of confidence.

There are plenty of other intriguing options to consider at better prices. Measure Twice (4) and Siena Magic (7) both appear to be training well for their debuts as they got out for capable barns. Grandmas Favorite (8) showed some ability last year in turf sprints. Point of Humor has the pedigree to move up on this surface and comes out of an impossible spot. I’ll use all of these in some capacity, but there are two horses in particular that I want to bet.

LONHTWIST (6) has run well in both career starts. He showed plenty of speed in his debut on dirt and understandably faded against a very tough field. He was bred to improve on turf, and he did exactly that next time, setting the pace before just fading in the final furlong. That was probably a stronger field than the one he meets here, and I’m not convinced that he necessarily wants to go that far. This is a drastic cutback in distance, but he has real ability and his low-profile connections will ensure a square price.

He’s one that I have to use, but the horse that intrigues me most at a better price is FIXED POINT (2). This is just an incredibly positive trainer switch, to go from 4 percent trainer Jaime Mejia to Phil Serpe, who routinely wins races on this circuit. All things considered, Fixed Point actually ran well in his turf starts for the prior barn down in Florida. He finished well after a slow start on Jan. 19, and then he ran better than the speed figure suggests on Mar. 1. That race has proven to be a strong one, as both Dirty and Too Much Data returned to run significantly faster in their subsequent starts. I think Fixed Point has run some of the best turf sprints of any horse in this race, and there’s a strong likelihood that he will run the best race of his career in this spot.