Stirred Not Shakin (1) is probably the horse to beat after showing improved form when dropped down to today’s class level in her most recent start. While she was never beating the winner that day, she may not have been helped by riding the rail throughout on a day when many horses seemed to avoid the inside path. She’s a threat to better that result if she merely repeats her last effort, but she will have to deal with main rival Tousled (10) to her outside. It’s hard to know what to expect from this filly after she finished second at 68-1 in her debut, following an 80-1 shot across the wire. Her speed figure was respectable, and she may be facing a group of similar quality today. She won’t be 68-1 this time, but the low-profile connections should ensure that she’s not the favorite in a situation where she otherwise would be.

I’m using both of these runners, but I have to bet SWEET BLINDNESS (9). Taking horses out of that Dec. 23 maiden race won by She Takes Charge has served us well, so we have no reason to stop now. The 9 horses that have run back out of that race have improved their TimeformUS Speed Figures by anywhere from 17 to 47 points in their next starts. Sweet Blindness did just that second time out, but she was once again placed in a spot where she was overmatched. Now she is turning back in distance and meeting by the far the weakest field of her brief career. Despite the fact that her prior running lines would appear to suggest that she doesn’t have much speed, the Pace Projector is actually predicting that she’s fast enough to contest the pace. The fact that she chased red color-coded fractions last time, and the addition of blinkers contribute to that forecast.

THE PLAY

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,7,10